The 2023 MLB season officially opened, the Fantasy Alarm MLB Best Bets returned and what a day it was! Opening Day brings about some amazing festivities and we see some crazy things happen, but when the dust settled, even though the Angels bats completely let us down, we opened the season turning a profit. The Braves run-line bet and the over for the Phillies/Rangers games were never in any doubt, but that final game had me pulling my hair out. If you didn’t know, here’s a nice, little fun fact – Shohei Ohtani’s outing was the 26th since 1901 with 10-plus strikeouts and no runs allowed on Opening Day. It was also the first time that pitcher’s team lost the game. In the immortal words of John Sterling, “Well, that’s baseball, Susan.”

We still turned a profit and I will keep track of everything right here. 

  • Record: 2-1
  • Bankroll: + 0.64 units

Just a five-game slate tonight, so let’s get to it.

 

 

MLB Bets Bets for March 31

Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros

With Justin Verlander no longer in Houston, Cristian Javier gets ready to take his spot as the new ace of the Astros. Last season, he posted an 11.74 K/9 and had the fourth-lowest hard-contact rate (19-percent) of any pitcher in the majors, so expectations of his first full run in the Houston rotation are very high right now. The White Sox are going to be a great-hitting team this year provided everyone stays healthy, but they are going to need a little bit of time to fully jell as a top lineup. After seeing them fan nine times in yesterday’s game, I believe Javier should hold them down. On the offensive front for Houston, they probably won’t have Yordan Alvarez in the starting lineup as GM Dana Brown said he wouldn’t play every day to open the season. But that doesn’t mean he can’t come off the bench at all. White Sox starter Lance Lynn had his struggles last season, posting some of his worst ratios, and those struggles were evident this spring. There’s not a huge amount of value on the money line, but we’ll take it rather than fishing for plus-odds on the run-line.

Pick: Houston Astros ML (-145 on BetMGM)

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres

Thursday’s 7-2 win for the Rockies was probably not what many were expecting, but if you watched German Marquez this spring and watched him settle down from an awkward first inning, you could probably understand how the Padres struggled. Tonight, they face lefty Kyle Freeland, against whom several Padres have had continued success against and they’ve even added Xander Bogaerts who has a career .311 average against southpaws. On the other side is Padres righty Nick Martinez and his career 4.50 ERA. He had a strong spring overall, but between him and the Padres bullpen, I’m not so sure the Rockies don’t plate a decent number of runs again.

Pick: Rockies/Padres over 8 runs (+100 on BetMGM)

Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners

This is one to jump on now before the total gets any higher as we are starting to now see a total of eight instead of the 7.5 still lingering on Caesars. Robie Ray is a fantastic strikeout pitcher, but he often has trouble with his command and we’ve seen his ratios climb outside of that one Cy Young season. The Guardians bats should be able to get to him by the second or third time through the order. On the other side, with the injury to Triston McKenzie, the Guardians are forced to use Hunter Gaddis who was supposed to fill a swingman/long-relief role. He has routinely struggled against left-handed hitting and he also has a problem keeping the ball in the yard, so power guys like Julio Rodriguez, Ty France and Eugenio Suarez could give him problems. Last night was the low-scoring battle of aces on the mound. Tonight, we see more fireworks.

Pick: Guardians/Mariners over 7.5 runs (-120 on Caesars Sportsbook)

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned