Sunday brings us another full slate of MLB action as we target more top baseball picks today. Our MLB bets focus on the San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets game and the Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox matchup. Plus, we wrap up our Sunday betting card with a few top MLB props. Enjoy the Memorial Day weekend baseball as we cash our MLB picks. 




MLB Picks, Predictions, & Best Bets Today, 5/26

As always, be sure to shop around for the best odds and lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and baseball predictions for Sunday, May 26th!

Giants vs. Mets Prediction Today, 5/26

Sunday afternoon brings along a National League showdown between the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets. Although the starting pitching matchup of Logan Webb vs Sean Manaea may indicate a lower-scoring game on the surface, we’re going in the other direction. Both pitchers are due for negative regression while the Giants and Mets offenses have splits in their favor here. 

Sean Manaea’s 3.11 ERA this season is certainly impressive on paper. However, the Mets’ left-hander has multiple underlying metrics – like a 4.25 xERA and 4.68 xFIP – that suggest he’s gotten lucky. Diving deeper, his 3.3% HR/FB rate would be a career-best mark for a veteran pitcher who’s been much higher than that in every season until now. Manaea’s 10.7% walk rate and 10.2% K-BB percentage are also career-worst numbers. Just check out how his 2024 campaign compares to the past four seasons: 



HR/FB Rate


































As low as his ERA may look, Manaea is bound for negative regression based on his track record and those indicating stats. Coincidentally, this weekend’s matchup is a tough one. The Giants are crushing left-handed pitching over the past two weeks with a .352 wOBA, 134 wRC+, .198 ISO, and .812 OPS. They boast a top-tier offense in the split during this span and can get to Manaea. 

The other side of this game should also add to the total, though. Logan Webb boasts a 3.03 ERA through 11 starts but he has some worrying advanced stats too. He has a 4.83 xERA that’s miles higher than that low ERA. Similar to Manaea, the San Francisco right-hander has a low 5.4% HR/FB rate that would be a career-best mark and gets amplified even more when we consider his 15.4% HR/FB rate last year. Webb’s 19.3% strikeout rate and 12.7% K-BB percentage are also his lowest since 2020. 

Webb will face a Mets lineup that’s hitting right-handed pitching well over the past week. The offense has a .357 wOBA, 137 wRC+, .205 ISO, and .277 BA vs righties in this recent span. The Mets are also among the top-third of the league in the split for the season overall. 

As risky as it is to fade two pitchers with lower ERAs, we’re doing it here. Take the over for the full game and first five innings as either and/or both Webb and Manaea run into trouble. 

Expert Giants vs. Mets Picks

  • Over 7.5 Total Runs (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 Runs (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)




Orioles vs. White Sox Prediction Today, 5/26

One of the biggest mismatches in terms of MLB team records this weekend is the Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox series. The O’s have one of the best win percentages in the AL while the ChiSox have been bottom-feeders all season. Let’s lean right into those good and bad vibes of both squads as Baltimore looks to finish the weekend strong. 

Kyle Bradish starts for the Orioles and he brings in an impressive 2.41 ERA through four starts so far. The right-hander’s 2.28 FIP and 2.70 xERA suggest he’s been just as good as that sub-3 ERA indicates. It’s a good sign that Bradish has pitched so well after beginning the season on the Injured List with an elbow strain. Remember, he had a 2.83 ERA in a breakout season last year. 

Bradish can keep it going against the lowly White Sox offense, as most opposing pitchers tend to do. Specifically, Chicago has terrible splits against right-handed pitching this year with a .279 wOBA (30th), 78 wRC+ (30th), .117 ISO (29th), and .631 OPS (29th). Those numbers aren’t much better in the month of May, either (.282 wOBA, 81 wRC+, .124 ISO, .633 OPS). This is a good spot for Bradish to limit a weak lineup and anchor a comfortable Orioles win. 

Meanwhile, bank on Baltimore’s bats to provide run support against White Sox starter Garrett Crochet. The left-hander has a 3.75 ERA through 11 starts and his advanced stats (2.18 xERA, 3.15 FIP, 2.77 xFIP) suggest he’s been even better. Despite those underlying metrics, this may be a good time to sell high on a guy who’s due for a poor outing.

Crochet hasn’t allowed a run in three straight starts and he has just a 0.96 ERA over his past five outings combined. However, in his three previous starts before this hot stretch, Crochet allowed 5, 7, and 5 runs to the Reds, Phillies, and Twins, respectively. He’s been vulnerable against some dangerous offenses this year and the Orioles certainly qualify as that. 

Baltimore leads the majors in multiple offensive categories against left-handed pitching, including wOBA (.364), wRC+ (139), ISO (.219), and OPS (.839). That’s held true lately, too, with the Orioles crushing lefties to the tune of a .389 wOBA, 157 wRC+, .190 ISO, and .894 OPS over the past two weeks. Conversely, the O’s have struggled against righties. Betting on this offense against southpaws has been a very profitable strategy and we’ll gladly do it here – even as good as Crochet has been recently. 

Let’s grab the Orioles on the run line to win by at least two runs on the road. The first five innings Baltimore RL is also a good play we’ll target. 

Expert Orioles vs. White Sox Picks

  • Orioles -1.5 Runline (+110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Orioles 1st 5 Innings -0.5 RL (-110 BetMGM)




Best MLB Player Props Today, 5/26