Welcome back to the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for today. I know the road has been rocky lately, but I also genuinely believe that these types of streaks happen, both good and bad, and it’s up to us to stay the course. Yes, we will make a few minor adjustments – thinking of leaning more towards some “first five innings” bets as opposed to the full game given we just got victimized by yet another bullpen collapse, this time from the usually reliable Emmanuel Clase of the Cleveland Guardians. How he allowed the tying run to score and then ultimately lose to the New York Yankees was beyond me. Seriously. We will fix this. I promise you. Just give a listen to this week’s Cash It podcast with me and Adam Ronis as we discuss exactly how you handle a losing streak when betting. In the meantime, onwards and upwards.

  • Yesterday’s Record: 1-2
  • Season Record: 48-47-2
  • Bankroll: -5.03 units

Pretty much all daytime baseball today and a short slate at that, so let’s get to it.

 

 

MLB Best Bets for May 4 

Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals

With Patrick Corbin, one of our favorite punching bags, on the mound today, the immediate look is where we can best bet the Cubs. Corbin may have appeared to settle down a bit with a pair of quality starts and a not-so-terrible outing against the Pirates his last time out, but he’s also allowed three home runs over his last two games and still sports an ERA of 5.74 for the season. The Cubs have the third-highest wOBA against southpaws at .369 and they’re doing it with power, as evidenced by the .204 ISO mark. Jameson Taillon is making his first start since injuring his groin, but I have much more confidence in him to hold it down early and allow the Cubs to hold a lead. At least through the first five innings. I’m not going to turn this bet over to the bullpen.

Pick: Chicago Cubs First 5 Innings -0.5 Run Line (-125 at BetMGM)

Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays

Do we really believe in Vince Velasquez? He’s thrown four-straight quality starts and has allowed just three runs over his last 25 innings. Great, right? But I’m just not buying it, especially when these performances have come against Washington, Cincinnati, Colorado and a Cardinals team that has had a horrendous start to the season. The Rays are other-worldly right now and are 16-2 at home, have a plus-113 run differential and are 21-10 against the run line this season. They also have the league’s highest wOBA against righties at .369 and are just crushing the ball. They’re throwing Zach Eflin who is coming off back-to-back starts against the White Sox where he allowed just three earned runs over 10 innings and posted a 9:2 K:BB. The Pirates bats have been strong, so I don’t expect Eflin to blank them. So for me, I’ll expect the Rays to do some damage and the Pirates to contribute as well. Not sure it all happens before the fifth inning, but maybe the bullpen struggles favor us today.

Pick: Pirates/Rays over 8 runs (-115 on DK Sportsbook)

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

With the Jays throwing Kevin Gausman and the Sox throwing Brayan Bello, you probably have a good idea as to what direction we are headed here. Gausman looks great with a 2.33 ERA and 54 strikeouts over just 38.2 innings while Bello, who is coming off a finger injury, is still rocking a 6.57 ERA with a 1.86 WHIP. You’re not going to be able to stifle this Jays lineup when you’re putting that many men on base for them. This is another one where I’m just not going to let bullpens get the better of me and we’ll simply look at the first half of this game.

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays First Five Innings -0.5 Run Line (-120 on BetMGM)

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned