Welcome to the MLB Best Bets & Betting Picks for Wednesday, May 31. We’ve been on a nice run lately and we are slowly building back our bankroll. We knew the 2023 MLB season, with all the new rules and players making adjustments to their usual routines, was going to be tough to navigate with regard to baseball bets – especially with everyone trying to chase long odds for same game parlays – but we are in the pocket now, adding in MLB player props, and feeling much better about things. Maybe not the winning streak we had to open the season, but we are getting it back and will continue to do so with our MLB best bets today.

  • Monday’s Record: 3-2
  • Season Record: 74-72-2
  • Bankroll: -5.80 units

We’ve got 14 games to look at today with a relatively even split between day games and night games. With the early start, let’s get to the action.

 

 

MLB Best Bets for May 31

Atlanta Braves at Oakland Athletics

Well, this series hasn’t exactly gone the way we expected, has it? The A’s jumped all over Mike Soroka to win 7-2 on Monday and then those of us who went back to the Braves yesterday got tagged again with a 2-1 defeat. I don’t see the Braves getting swept, especially not with James Kaprielian on the mound, but I’m also not 100-percent comfortable with Jared Shuster on the bump either, so looking at run lines, even for the first five innings could be treacherous. So let’s back the bats, shall we? Kaprielian pitches to a world of contact and issues a fair number of free passes as well. That 8.45 ERA and 1.88 stand out like turds in a punch bowl and his peripherals don’t tell a story of improvement. The Braves need to walk away with the win, so expect their offense to be front-and-center today and their middle-of-the-road .320 wOBA versus righties should improve. On the other side, Shuster has been serviceable, but we expect the A’s, who have a .320 wOBA against southpaws this season , to put up a few runs for themselves. Both bullpens have also been roughed up this past week, so I don’t expect the relievers to fare much better than the starters. I also expect Matt Olson to continue his performance in his old stadium against his old team.

Pick: Braves/Athletics over 9 runs (-115 on BetMGM)

Pick: Matt Olson over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers

This series has actually gone exactly as we expected with the Dodgers winning the first two and outscoring the Nationals 15-4. But today’s match-up has an interesting wrinkle to it. While no one in their right mind would ever look to favor Patrick Corbin, how do you look at Noah Syndergaard and say to yourself, “Oh yeah, he’s definitely a guy I’d like to back”? You don’t. The Nationals may be sitting near the bottom in offensive totals against righthanded pitching, but they actually have a .330 wOBA over the past week and they continue to keep the strikeouts to a minimum. Syndergaard does not have swing-and-miss stuff and has now allowed 11 earned runs over his last 15 innings (three starts). Meanwhile, Corbin, despite getting blown up by Kansas City his last time out, has been surprisingly efficient with four quality starts in his last five outings and has allowed three runs or fewer in his eight of his 11 starts. We’re not saying the Nationals win this one, but with the Dodgers posting only good but not great numbers against lefties, we’ll back the Nationals through the first five innings if BetMGM is going to give them a full run on top of the usual half.

Pick: Nationals First 5 Innings +1.5 Run Line (-120 on BetMGM)

Cincinnati Reds at Boston Red Sox

Don’t look now, but the Red Sox are one of the best-hitting teams at home this season with a team slash line of .298/.363/.486 with an .840 OPS. They’ve averaged just over six runs per game at home and after plating eight yesterday, get the always hittable Luke Weaver on the mound. Weaver has had two decent outings in his last three starts, but has allowed at least four earned runs in five of his seven starts this season. The Reds are swinging some hot bats themselves and do well against left-handed pitching, but I don’t know which James Paxton shows up today or if I like such a high game-total. I prefer to stay on the Red Sox bats for this one, so team total and a prop for one of their hottest hitters right now is where I would like to live.

Pick: Red Sox Team Total over 5.5 runs (-110 on BetMGM)

Pick: Masataka Yoshida over 1.5 total bases (+110 on BetMGM)