You know that guy who writes up the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks on Fantasy Alarm? He’s about to lose his mind. We all know that betting baseball, especially every day, is not an easy task and anyone who tells you it’s easy either isn’t betting themselves or they’re just flat-out lying. Take what we’ve seen here over the last week. It started Monday when the Texas Rangers bullpen blew three-straight games in the eighth or ninth inning and then carried into the weekend when Jalen Beeks allowed five runs in the eighth to allow the Chicago White Sox to beat the Tampa Bay Rays. Then it spilled into yesterday’s action as A.J. Minter gave up a home run to Eduardo Escobar to blow our run-line bet and even further into the night when Clay Holmes and the New York Yankees bullpen blew a two-run lead in the top of the ninth. That’s six bets in seven days blown up by bullpens. And not crappy bullpens either – solid, well-performing bullpens, at least for the most part. That’s not bad betting; that’s a string of bad beats. It’s unlucky. Things will balance out, but if you are frustrated by what has been happening, you are far from alone. I bet every pick I make and I am also pulling my hair out. We cannot change the process though. I don’t want to be Mr. 110 as they say, but I can’t start chasing long odds for same game parlays to start jumping back in. We will steadily climb back up and then we’ll hit the parlays. We just need to get over this hump right now.

  • Yesterday’s Record: 1-2
  • Season Record: 47-41-2
  • Bankroll: +0.10 units

We’ve got a full 15-game slate tonight so let’s get back at it!



MLB Best Bets for May 2

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox

While the White Sox may have broken their 11-game losing streak thanks to Jalen Beeks, they still aren’t a strong team and one game does not erase just how poorly they’ve been hitting. Joe Ryan has been an absolute beast for the Twins, posting four quality starts in five outings and has a 36:4 K:BB over 29 innings. The White Sox are still sitting on the fifth-worst wOBA (.294) and are striking out 23-percent of the time against righties. Meanwhile Michael Kopech has been hot trash, allowing 12 earned runs over his last 15 innings and has allowed three homers and 10 walks in that span. The Twins have the 11th-best wOBA against righties with a .328 mark and have average almost six runs per game over their last eight.

Pick: Minnesota Twins -1.5 Run Line (-105 on Caesars Sportsbook)

Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals

It’s no secret that the Royals are one of the worst-hitting teams in MLB right now and the numbers paint an even more grim picture. We’re talking about a .262 wOBA, a 61 wRC+, a 26-percent K-rate and just a .108 ISO against righthanded pitching. All of those numbers are dead-last in the league except for the ISO which is second-worst. With the way Tyler Wells has been throwing for the Orioles, I don’t anticipate the Royals bats putting up much of a fight. Kansas City will be throwing lefty Ryan Yarbrough who still hasn’t gone past four innings since being stretched out. Baltimore hits lefties well and if/when they chase Yarbrough, they’ll have to tangle with the Royals bullpen which has been elite over the past week, posting a 1.85 ERA over 24.1 innings. I believe the Orioles will win, but I also think the score stays down a little bit.

Pick: Orioles/Royals under 9 runs (-120 on BetMGM)

Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres

While Graham Ashcraft has looked solid this season, posting a 2.10 ERA, he’s walked 14 batters over his last four starts and he’s pitching to a lot of contact. His peripherals (3.87 xERA and 4.56 xFIP) show he’s been getting lucky with so few runs allowed, but that should end here with a Padres lineup that has seemingly found its power stroke again. Over the last three games, they’ve averaged 10 runs per game and while yes, those Mexico City games had some uber-thin air helping the ball leave the yard, they still put up eight runs on the Reds last night in San Diego. The money line has no value and with Michael Wacha on the mound, I’m a little leery of betting the run line, but we are getting plus-odds here and the Padres bullpen has been decent enough. I’m actually going to make two bets off this game and see if we can’t ride the Padres coattails and make a few extra bucks. I’d parlay them if I could, but the books won’t allow it.

Pick: San Diego Padres -1.5 Run Line (+100 on BetMGM)

Pick: San Diego Padres Team Total over 4.5 runs (-125 on BetMGM)   

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned