Welcome to the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for Monday, May 15. To be honest, I’m still tilting from that Texas Rangers run-line loss where they took the two-run lead in extra innings but then dropped the game thanks to a Brent Rooker home run. Rooker, man. Still trying to figure that dude out, but we’re still finding ways to target against the Oakland Athletics. Only nine wins on the season. Terrible. We’ll keep finding value around them somehow and maybe even building a few same game parlays to help get us back in the black. They are on the schedule, so we’ll see. In the meantime, it’s a strong 12-game slate for baseball betting and there are some best bets for today to keep in mind.
- Friday’s Record: 1-2
- Season Record: 53-56-2
- Bankroll: -9.42
MLB Best Bets for May 15
The game total is rising, so you may want to bet quickly if you want to tail this pick. Believe it or not, the Nationals are one of the better offenses against left-handed pitching and I am not a David Peterson fan. He can be great for strikeouts, but he’s pitching to a lot of contact and he’s being hit hard, as evidence by all the home runs he’s giving up. The Nats are fanning at less than 16-percent against southpaws and while they aren’t a huge power team, their .343 wOBA against lefties ranks sixth overall and they have the seventh-highest wRC+ so you know they’re doing a good job at manufacturing runs. On the other side is Patrick Corbin and we all know how bad he can be. The Mets numbers against lefties don’t look very impressive at all, but, when you look at how Corbin has fared against the likes of Pete Alonso, Tommy Pham and even Marck Canha, you can expect some runs here.
Pick: Mets/Nationals over 9.5 (-115 on Caesars Sportsbook)
Freddy Peralta has three-straight quality starts with two or fewer runs allowed and a 23:5 K:BB ratio and gets a second bite at the apple against a Cardinals team he limited to one run over six innings with seven strikeouts earlier this season. However, the Cardinals offense has finally awakened and they’ve averaged 6.57 runs per game while going 7-1 over their last eight games. Peralta is a great pitcher, but he’s running into a lineup many of us expected to be doing significantly better than they have this season, so I expect them to do some scoring here, especially coming back home. On the other side is Jack Flaherty whose command issues are still a serious problem. He hasn’t made it past the fifth inning in his last three starts, he's allowed a home run in six-straight games and the 6.18 ERA and 1.75 WHIP make it difficult to believe he’s able to turn things around. Add to that the Cardinals bullpen being one of the most overworked group and you can imagine that the Brew Crew with their .326 wOBA and near 10-percent walk rate against righties won’t plate some runs here too.
Pick: Brewers/Cardinals over 8 (+100 on Caesars Sportsbook)
I told you we were going to target the A’s and here we are with Drew Rucinski on the mound for them. The righthander has allowed 13 earned runs through his first three starts (14.1 innings) and his command has been atrocious, as evidenced by his 6:9 K:BB ratio in that span. Nope. Not a typo. More walks than strikeouts with an ERA at 8.16 for the season. Arizona has the fourth-highest wOBA against righties (.339) and their plate discipline has been very strong. On the other side is Merrill Kelly who hits an occasional speed bump like he did against Miami his last time out, but he routinely bounces back with a much stringer game. The A’s just don’t have the offense to consistently produce, so while they burned me on Friday, I’m very comfortable going back to a run-line bet against them tonight.
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 Run Line (-125 on BetMGM)