The 2023 MLB season has been quite the ride for the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks, hasn’t it? We opened the season white-hot, stumbled through many of the hitting and pitching adjustments as the books tightened up the odds on the money lines and run-line offerings and now we are in the process of building it all back up. We’ve made some adjustments to attack “first five innings” bets and after a solid day yesterday, the light at the end of the tunnel is getting brighter. No, that’s not the same game parlay train about to run you over. It’s daylight, baby! And we’re about to step out into it.

  • Yesterday’s Record: 2-0
  • Season Record: 52-54-2
  • Bankroll: -8.33 units

We’ve got a full 15-game slate and it’s all starting later tonight.

 

MLB Best Bets for May 12 

Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins

We’re going to have some fun with this first game as the Marlins are calling up 20-year-old righthander Eury Perez from Double-A Pensacola to make his debut in this game. He’s 6-foot-8 with a tremendous downward plane on a fastball that consistently sits in the upper-90s and touches triple-digits as the game progresses. But even more exciting is that he has outstanding command over his three other offerings and should have himself a strong debut against a Reds team that has just a .306 wOBA with a near-25-percent strikeout rate against righties. We’re not expecting seven scoreless frames from him, but we also don’t see these Reds bats doing much in the way of damage. Meanwhile, the Reds are throwing groundball specialist Graham Ashcraft whose last start was ruined after he got hit in the leg with a comebacker. He struggled to stay in the game and got burned. Will that happen to him in this match-up against a soft-hitting Marlins team that posts a .286 wOBA against righties? Probably not. Or, at least we don’t expect it to happen. Celebrate rookie fever with me and expect a very low-scoring affair, especially with both bullpens looking so sharp recently.

Pick: Reds/Marlins under 7.5 runs (+100 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics

This one seems pretty straightforward to me based on the pitching match-up, the way both offenses are trending and how the money line odds are looking. The Rangers are a -170 favorite but we’re obviously not betting that. Instead, we’ll look to the run line as the Rangers will be facing lefty Ken Waldichuk whose performance this far this season has been poor at best. His 7.25 ERA and 1.75 WHIP are going to spike even further north as the Texas bats are posting an aggressive .351 wOBA against southpaws this season. Martin Perez takes the mound for the Rangers and he shouldn’t have any real issue with this Oakland lineup and its soft .316 wOBA against southpaws.  Quick and dirty, people. Quick and dirty.

Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 Run Line (-110 on BetMGM)

Kansas City Royals at Milwaukee Brewers

We’re going to back the pitching in this match-up which might unnerve some people. Corbin Burnes has not been himself this season, but started to come around until some defensive issues behind him ruined his last outing. But he’s facing a Royals team that has a dismal .293 wOBA against righthanded pitching and they’re striking out almost 25-percent of the time. Burnes should have to work too hard to get through this lineup. The bullpen behind him has been solid over the last seven days, so they too should be able to handle the Royals. On the other side, Kansas City is throwing lefty Josh Taylor who is probably only good for a few innings. He hasn’t been good, but the Brewers have also been atrocious against southpaws this season, posting a league-worst .265 wOBA with a 30.8-percent K-rate. The Brewers are likely to score early, but I don’t see them chasing Taylor that quickly and the KC bullpen has actually been strong recently. There will be some runs scored, but not enough to go over the line.

Pick: Royals/Brewers under 8.5 runs (-110 on BetMGM)

*All bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned

 


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