Welcome to the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for Wednesday, July 19. We’ve got a split slate today with some super-early action and a total of six games starting before 4pm ET. Day games after night games just might be the way to go today, especially with how much offense we saw over the past two nights, but then again, we’ve got Coors Field action and some pretty lousy starting pitchers in the early half. Still, some of the match-ups we see in the evening look pretty tempting as well, so rather than waste time with pleasantries, let’s get to it.

  • Monday’s Record: 2-2
  • Season Record: 116-108-5
  • Bankroll: -4.62 units
 

 

MLB Best Bets for July 19 

Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics

With Ken Waldichuk starting for Oakland today, I feel compelled to get my money in on Boston in any way I can. The lefty holds a devilish 6.66 ERA with a horrendous 1.84 WHIP and never goes more than a few innings. The A’s bullpen has already been overworked and has a 5.16 ERA of its own. We know the Red Sox bats perform better at home than on the road, but with a .337 wOBA against southpaws, we have to back them. On the mound for Boston is Brayan Bello who has helped us win bets before and there is no reason to think, he can’t do it again. A mediocre outing at Wrigley Field with some wind isn’t going to deter us because he still provided us with a quality start, his seventh in a row. There’s not a lot of value to be had here, so we’ll grab the full nine innings of at-bats and expect the Red Sox pitching to keep this Triple-A opposition at bay (pun intended).

Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 Run Line (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

San Diego Padres at Toronto Blue Jays

We’re going to get a little funky here with two offenses that have been heating up here in the second half. The Padres are posting a .357 wOBA with a massive .275 ISO over the past week while the Jays have a .367 wOBA over that span, though the power is not quite there. And that’s where the pitching slides in. Yu Darvish is on the bump for San Diego and the world has not been kind to him away from Petco Park. Darvish has a 5.52 road ERA with a diminished strikeout rate. He did have a nice outing against the Phillies during his last road start, but he just hasn’t shown enough consistency to trust. Meanwhile, Jose Berrios has been surprisingly string at home with a 2.83 ERA and is limiting all hitters to a .285 wOBA at the Rogers Centre. With both offenses surging, I don’t want to leave anything up to bullpens, so we’ll back Berrios and the home team, at least for the first half of the game.

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays 1st 5 Innings -0.5 Run Line (+115 on Caesars Sportsbook)

Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners

While Luis Castillo has a better ERA at home than he does on the road, his recent performances might make you worry a little about this match-up against the Twins. Minnesota is one of the hottest-hitting teams in baseball right now with a .401 wOBA and a .272 ISO over the past week. Yes, they are still striking out too much, but it is impossible to ignore the power and production. We’re talking 11 home runs and 34 RBI just over the last five games. Castillo gave up three runs to Detroit in his last home start and a total of 11 runs over his last four in Seattle. What’s worse is that he’s coughed up seven home runs in those games. I’m not really concerned as to who wins this game or anything, but between Castillo and a mid-level, slightly overworked bullpen, we should see some runs for the Twins.

Pick: Minnesota Twins Team Total over 3.5 (+110 on Caesars Sportsbook)