Are the dog days of summer for MLB officially here? The calendar flips to July and we’re excited to start the month off on the right foot for the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for today. We’ve enjoyed some profit over my last few articles and after looking at today’s full slate of MLB games and the recent betting odds, we’re ready for some action. This series between the Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres at Great American Ballpark is an exciting one an there are a number of quality starting pitcher in whom we’d like to invest. On the flip side, we’ve also got some pitchers we’d like to pick on, especially when they are facing some of the toughest offenses in the game.

  • Thursday’s Record: 3-2-1
  • Season Record: 102-99-4
  • Bankroll: -8.93 units


MLB Best Bets for July 1 

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds

My normal instinct for a day game following a night game that lands in extra innings is to fade the over, but this series has me thinking otherwise. The Padres battled back to tie the game in the ninth, took a lead in the 10th and then watched the Reds battle back to extend the game. The Padres struck again in the 11th but the Reds magic wasn’t gone and they ended up winning on a Spencer Steer home run. If you’re the Pares, you have to be fired up today. You’ve got marquee names littering the roster and everyone is dogging you for your struggles. You’re facing lefty Brandon Williamson with his 5.82 ERA on the mound and your team sits with the fifth-highest wOBA (.337) and fourth-highest ISO (.192) against southpaws. It’s time to get back on-track. On the other side we’ve got Michael Wacha and while he’s been dominant this season, he hasn’t pitched since June 19 due to shoulder soreness. The Padres wouldn’t throw him unless they were confident in his health, but then again, that’s what we all thought about Shane McClanahan and the Rays yesterday. The Reds offense is surging and incredibly dynamic. They own a .333 wOBA with a .173 ISO at Great American Smallpark and if Wacha give them an inch, they’re going to take a mile.

Pick: Padres/Reds over 11.5 runs (-110 on BetMGM)

Los Angeles Dodgers at Kansas City Royals

Death, taxes and the Dodgers against a scrub lefty like Daniel Lynch. OK, maybe the kid has a nice career ahead of him, but right now he’s sporting a 6.23 ERA at home and all of his peripherals indicate that his overall 3.96 ERA is going to increase. The Dodgers already have strong numbers against southpaws this season, but they’ve kicked their offense into a new gear recently, winning seven of their last nine while averaging just over six runs per game in that span. They’ve also posted a .373 wOBA with a .250 ISO over the past week. The Dodgers are also getting back Julio Urias today and while he may only give the Dodgers five innings, their bullpen has been fierce with a 2.22 ERA over the last seven days.

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 run line (-140 on DK Sportsbook)

Pick: Mookie Betts over 1.5 total bases (-115 on DK Sportsbook)

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays

It’s been a rough road for the Red Sox lately, losing five of their last six, but they bounced back yesterday and take on a familiar foe in lefty Yusei Kikuchi. The last time they faced him, they rang up five earned runs with two homers over just 4.1 innings. He’s actually sitting on a 5.32 ERA in six games against Boston, so we’re going to invest in the bats today. Boston owns a .329 wOBA against lefties and they have a K-rate of just 21.2-percent with a strong 10.3-percent walk rate. I think they get to Kikuchi early and put some runs on the board today.

Pick: Boston Red Sox team total over 3.5 runs (-130 on BetMGM)

Pick: Yusei Kikuchi under 5.5 strikeouts (+105 on BetMGM)