We’re back at it for another run of MLB Best Bets and oh baby…what a 2023 MLB season we are having right now. We came close to another perfect day on Monday to follow- up the perfect weekend, but the bats got the better of us in that Los Angeles Angels/Seattle Mariners game and pushed the game total over the seven-run mark we were hoping to stay under. What can you do? Fortunately, we called the over in the Blue Jays/Royals game and we had the Tampa Bay Rays on the run line, so while the day wasn’t perfect, it was still profitable. Before we give you the MLB Best Bets for today, let’s tally up the record and profits.

  • Yesterday’s Record: 2-1
  • Season Record: 12-3
  • Bankroll: +7.31 units

We’ve got 14 games to watch tonight, so let’s see where we want to put our money.

 

 

MLB Best Bets for April 4 

Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros

The Tigers were a surprise winner in extra innings yesterday as they got off to a hot start against Hunter Brown and barely held on the rest of the way. Today, they’re not going to get away so easily against Framber Valdez. The Tigers bats have started the season ice cold and they’ve been terrible against lefties posting just a .180 wOBA against them through the first few games., so I expect them to be held in check for, pretty much, the entire game. The Astros will tangle with right-hander Matt Manning who can occasionally flash some strong pitching, but is coming off a rough spring where he posted a 6.43 ERA with a 2.07 WHIP over 14 innings. And a 15:6 K:BB isn’t going to cut it against the Astros, particularly their lefty bats Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. No value on the money line, but I’ll make an exception for the run line and take the home team. 

Pick: Houston Astros -1.5 Run Line (-130 on DK Sportsbook)

Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers

As of writing this, the Orioles have yet to announce their starter as they had to use Tyler Wells in relief of Kyle Bradish, who got hurt early in the game yesterday. I can’t imagine they’re going to be bringing up someone who is going to be lights-out against this Rangers lineup that has been solid against lefties and is crushing right-handed pitching as well. The Rangers, on the other side, are throwing lefty Andrew Heaney who has had a dismal spring with his 6.75 ERA and 1.92 WHIP. The Orioles have been murdering left-handed pitching already through this short season, posting a league-high .526 wOBA and have been doing it with massive power. While I cant tell you who is going to win this game, I’m pretty confident that it's going to be a high-scoring affair.

Pick: Orioles/Rangers over 8.5 runs (-110 on DK Sportsbook)

Tampa Bay Rays at Washington Nationals

Why wouldn’t we continue targeting against the Nationals when it’s worked so well for us? Rays manager Kevin Cash was thinking about using an opener for this game, but looked at the match-up and decided to let Fleming start. Now the Nationals have fared well against southpaws with their righty-heavy lineup, but should Fleming get into trouble early, I could easily see Cash giving him the hook for a righty arm. The Nationals have a league-worst .187 wOBA against right-handers thus far, so I’m not too worried about the Rays containing the Washington hitters. On the other side, Chad Kuhl takes the mound for the Nationals and he’s just not a good pitcher. He’s roster-filler for bad teams and that’s exactly what Washington is. The Rays have a .448 wOBA against righties so far and they’re doing it with a strong .279 ISO and 1.050 OPS. I don’t want to pay the juice for a Rays money line bet, so we’ll take the run line once again.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 run line (-110 on BetMGM)

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned