The 2023 MLB season rolls on and we put last week behind us. As I’ve mentioned before here in the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks piece, the early portion of the season can be difficult to navigate. We crushed early on and came back down to Earth this past week. Now we can take the data and everything else we know about betting baseball and get back to the grind. There is no looking back. There is no what was. Lost all three bets yesterday? Pick yourself up and go after it again. Missed just one leg of your same game parlay? Still a loss. No partial credit on parlays. We continue the grind and we will all be smiling in the end.

  • Yesterday’s Best Bets: 0-3
  • Season Record: 32-20
  • Bankroll: +7.80 units

We have an early start thanks to Patriots Day in Boston, so let’s get to it.

 

 

MLB Best Bets for April 17

Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox

We’re going to get an early start today and begin grinding to get our bankroll back up to where we started last week with Shohei Ohtani on the mound for the Angels on one of the most historic days in Boston. He’s been lights-out through three starts this season with a 0.47 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP and 24 strikeouts over 19 innings and while he’s walked a few too many guys, he certainly hasn’t paid any kind of price for it and we look to him to help avoid the sweep. However, in the realm of anything can happen, we also know the Angels don’t really afford Ohtani very much in run support either. Brayan Bello takes the mound for the first time this season and you just never know how a rookie will react to the moment. Given the Halos struggles in this series, we’re going to avoid the final score of this game, focus on Ohtani’s prowess and the sluggishness of the Angels offense. The under is 11-4-2 in the last 17 meetings between these two clubs but with bullpens and ghost runners, we’ll just focus on the first five innings.

Pick: Angels/Red Sox First Five Innings under 4.5 runs (-134 on FD Sportsbook)

Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals

This is the second time in a row Jacob deGrom and Lordan Lyles are facing each other and while I usually like to avoid a pitcher on his second-straight start against a club, this is deGrom and it’s the Royals. Kansas City has the second-lowest wOBA against right-handed pitching with a .277 mark and they are fanning almost 25-percent of the time. He punched out nine of them his last starts, walked none and should have no issues containing this lineup. Lyles pitched reasonably well, though he allowed four runs in 6.1 innings, but that was against a Texas team that lost Corey Seager midway through the game and had other injuries cropping up. Since that time the Rangers have gotten back on-track and have the ninth-best overall wOBA in the league over the last seven days. We expect deGrom to do his thing and the Lyles to do his, if you know what I mean. 

Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 Run Line (-118 on FD Sportsbook)

Chicago Cubs at Oakland Athletics

You know what they say – if you can’t beat them, join them and that’s exactly what we’re going to do with the Oakland A’s today. They may have lost their last four-straight games and are just coming off being swept by the Mets, but three of those four games were decided by one run and these Oakland bats have posted the fourth-highest team wOBA (.354) over the last seven days. Cubs starter Hayden Wesneski is still finding his way in the big leagues and has struggled through his first two starts. The A’s have been at home for the past several days, they’re comfortable and should be able to hit him fairly well. I’m not enamored with A’s lefty Kyle Muller, but the road-weary Cubs are coming off some tight games against the Dodgers and may be overlooking their opponents a little. That could show with their near-30-percent K-rate against southpaws this season. We’re going to take a little bit of a chance here and back the home team for some plus-odds.

Pick: Oakland Athletics Money Line (+122 on Caesars Sportsbook)

**all best are one unit unless specifically mentioned