Here we are a couple of weeks into the 2023 MLB season and what did we learn yesterday? We learned that when the guy who is writing up the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks says he doesn’t like the slate, you trust in him that he doesn’t feel good about betting the games. It’s ok to take a day off, even when you are winning. That might be one of the primary differences between using my picks as a guideline and using the picks from somewhere else. They don’t care if you win or lose as most of them are not even remotely betting the picks they give out. They write an article, hand you a bunch of plus-money picks, maybe even a same game parlay, and they walk away. It doesn’t matter to them just so long as they get as many pageviews they can get. I don’t work like that. I bet each and every pick I give out. When you win, I win. When you lose, I lose. So, just as a heads up, if I don’t like a slate at all, I’m not going to make picks. Maybe I’ll change the style of the article and give you a lean or two, but I will not force picks if I don’t feel comfortable with them. Does that work? Great!

  • Yesterday’s Record: 1-2
  • Season Record: 32-17
  • Bankroll: +10.80 units

We’ve got a much better looking 15-game slate, so let’s get at it today.

 

 

MLB Best Bets for April 16 

Cleveland Guardians at Washington Nationals

There’s nothing wrong with taking a game that appears easy, especially if you’re just looking to turn a quick profit without much thinking. Picking on Patrick Corbin is easy and we’re going to do it to try and secure some early profit. He’s allowed 12 earned runs over three starts (14 innings) and he’s allowed three home runs and three walks in his last two outings. The Guardians have a .333 wOBA against lefties this season and have shown tremendous plate discipline with a near-12-percent walk rate and a strikeout rate under 18-percent. They’ll wait out Corbin and force him to throw it over the plate. Once that happens, we’ll get some fireworks. Meanwhile, it’s Shane Bieber and his 2.37 ERA and 0.95 WHIP coming out against an offense that ranks dead-last in wOBA (.262), ISO (.083) and wRC+ (56) against right-handed pitching this season. Not to mention the fact that the Guardians’ bullpen has been lights-out this past week with the third-lowest ERA and more than a strikeout per inning. Since we’ve taken some losses this week, I’ll just take the regular run line here for decent odds. If you want to go bolder, you can take the -2.5 alternate run line on BetMGM which give you plus-odds.

Pick: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 Run Line (-135 on Caesars Sportsbook)

Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers

We’ve got the rubber match today as the Cubs beat up Noah Syndergaard to open the series and then we got a tight pitching duel that culminated with a 2-1 walk-off win for the Dodgers. Today, though, the Dodgers have their ace on the mound in Julio Urias. He’s been outstanding so far, allowing just three earned runs over 18 innings with a 20:2 K:BB. The Cubs have hit some lefties this season but have a strikeout rate north of 30-percent. Urias shouldn’t have much trouble here. On the other side, the Dodgers will get a look at veteran lefty Drew Smyly who is coming off a solid start against the Mariners, but had gotten waxed in Cincy during his first start. The Dodgers bats have been strong against lefties with a .335 wOBA, but, more importantly, they are hitting for significant power against them, as evidenced by the .226 ISO. Los Angeles is a clear favorite on the money line and given the early match-up, we’ll side with the home team on the run line.

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Run Line (-110 on Caesars Sportsbook)

New York Mets at Oakland Athletics

Yes, we’re going right back to this series. We won our bet for the first game, lost yesterday and plan on taking it down today with JP Sears on the mound for the Oakland. Sears has allowed six runs over 9.2 innings, he’s given up three home runs and he’s allowing right-handed bats to post a .403 wOBA with a .444 ISO against him thus far. The Mets will be stacked with righties in their lineup and should put some decent runs on the board. And after they chase Sears, the Oakland bullpen is sporting an 8.33 ERA over the last seven days. The Mets are throwing Jose Butto who has made to starts at Triple-A this year and has allowed two runs over 9.2 innings. He’s still honing his command, but the A’s are striking out 25-percent of the time against righties and have the fifth-lowest wOBA (.302) against them this season.

Pick: New York Mets -1.5 Run Line (+105 on Caesars Sportsbook) 

**all bets are single unit unless specifically mentioned