We’ve had an interesting week here for the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks at Fantasy Alarm. We’ve had a couple of decent days, but we’ve also hit some real bad luck too with a few games. I’m still feeling the burn of Vince Velasquez from the other day. But we have to remember that it’s still plenty early in the season and this first month is about slowly grinding out some profit while learning the intricacies of every MLB team. If you’re like me, you’re taking notes diligently so that we can take all of this information and turn it into a larger profit margin down the road. Once the books start to correct everything they’ve missed, we’ll start to take advantage of building same game parlays with some prop bets added in, but not until we learn as much as we can. If you don’t know the story of the two bulls standing atop a hill overlooking a pasture filled with cows, google it and you’ll understand what I mean. For now, we grind.
- Yesterday’s Record: 2-1
- Season Record: 31-15
- Bankroll: +12.00 units
Big slate today, but to be honest, I really don’t like the betting card. The pitching on the day is pretty lame and I don’t love a lot of these match-ups. Still, I should be able to find a few places to make some money.
MLB Best Bets for April 15
Freddy Peralta has looked rock-solid coming into this season, allowing just one earned runs over 12 innings with 14 strikeouts. He’s walked a total of six which is, obviously, disconcerting, but with his swing-and-miss stuff, he could get away with it again as the Padres continue to press at the plate. They’re striking out at a 26.3-percent clip against right-handers and have now lost four of their last five, scoring an average of just over two runs per game during that span. On the other side is Seth Lugo who has been a major surprise and kind of a revelation for the Padres rotation. He had an easy time against the Rockies his first start of the season and while he struggled with his command against a much better Braves squad, he still kept the damage to a minimum with a very impressive ground ball rate. He will level off at some point, but right now the Brew Crew has the eighth-highest ground ball rate against righties and may struggle early. The once caveat here is that neither bullpen looks good so we’re actually going to stay in the first five innings here and back the pitching.
Pick: Padres/Brewers First Five Innings under 4 runs (-120 on BetMGM)
Do we really believe in Kris Bubic? Has he turned some mysterious corner and become a dazzling left-handed ace? We’re sure going to find out today and I’m going to put money down that says he isn’t. I get it – he had a fantastic home opener against the Blue Jays and then shut down the Giants in his next outing. But the Jays have been pretty mediocre against southpaws all year and the Giants have been downright horrible. The Braves, on the other hand, have the third-highest wOBA against lefties (.384) and the fourth-highest weighted Runs Created (wRC+) at 134 against them. Some damage today? I believe so. Bryce Elder makes his third start for the Braves and gets a Royals team that has the second-lowest wOBA against righties (.266) and are fanning 24.7-percent of the time. Is there a chance, Bubic does shine early? Yes. Both could. Is there a chance the Braves blow him up and chase him early? Yes. So I’ll pass on the early over/under and just look for the Braves to take an early lead.
Pick: Atlanta Braves First Five Innings Money Line (-125 on BetMGM)
Yesterday we went with the Mets run line and it hit easily as they scored 17 runs against some tragic Oakland pitching. But the A’s tried to do their part and they still scored six. So why is Vegas saying the under is favored in today’s action, especially with Carlos Carrasco and Shintaro Fujinami on the bump? The two have combined to allow 24 earned runs over just 16.1 innings (four starts) and Carrasco alone has allowed three home runs. Are we to believe that both teams are to be contained today? Honestly, I don’t think so, but I can’t say that this line doesn’t look suspicious. So instead of fighting this and sweating the half-run I’m having to deal with, I will just back the better team in the visiting Mets and with no value on the money line, I will just take that run line again and expect a solid effort from the Mets bats….and hopefully the Mets bullpen.
Pick: New York Mets -1.5 run line (-115 on BetMGM)
**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned