As the 2023 MLB season continues, we are getting a hard and fast lesson in how quickly things can change as players work themselves into more of an in-season form. Some of it is working in our favor here at the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks and some of it is not. The ups and downs are normal so don’t get frustrated over some losses this week. Take yesterday for example – in the realm of “That’s baseball, Susan,” we watched helplessly as Vincent Velasquez looked like Cy Young against the Cardinals and spoiled Jordan Walker’s quest for a record-breaking start to the season. I don’t sweat the occasional good game this guy pitches and will happily go back to picking on him for his next start. In the meantime, keep reading here for my MLB best bets for today, stick to the process, accept that there will be some losses and focus on the overall bankroll as we look to stay in the black.
- Yesterday’s Record: 0-2
- Season Record: 29-14
- Bankroll: +11.43 units
Let's get to today's action.
MLB Best Bets for April 14
As much as I love the potential for Trevor Rogers to return to form, this game is all about two struggling lefties and two offenses that have hit lefties well this season so far. We can start with Rogers who looked solid early on in the spring but started to struggle with command late in the spring and through his first two starts. Granted both of his starts came against the same team and you expect the second start to be a little tougher, but he’s throwing too many pitches and isn’t able to go deeper into a game. With the Diamondbacks striking out fewer than 20-percent of the time and posting a .349 wOBA against southpaws, we expect some runs. And it’s basically the same with Madison Bumgarner on the mound for Arizona. Miami is striking out a little more against lefties, but MadBum is one of the most hittable pitchers in the game and the Diamondbacks bullpen has a 4.88 ERA over the course of the season. Runs, runs and more runs.
Pick: Diamondbacks/Marlins over 9 runs (-115 on BetMGM)
The A’s really tore into Orioles pitching in their last series, but this will be the first time they are seeing Kodai Senga and his infamous ghost forkball. The Marlins faced him in back-to-back starts and still couldn’t hit it, so unless Shintaro Fujinami has shared the secret to hitting the pitch successfully, we expect the A’s bats to struggle. The Mets haven’t exactly been tearing the cover of the ball, but their plate discipline against righties has been on-point with a 13.7-percent walk rate and 18.4-percent K-rate. That will force James Kaprielian to throw strikes and open him up to some bigger hits. He’s already allowed 12 earned runs and four home runs over just 9.2 innings, so expect the Mets to put up some runs and take this game.
Pick: Mets -1.5 Run Line (-125 on Bet MGM)
Charlie Morton is still working his way into mid-season form but we saw some early start-to-start improvement in his last effort against the Padres. The Royals have been terrible against righties thus far, striking out 25.1-percent of the time and posting a .262 wOBA against them. They’ve dropped three of their last four and are still a little road-weary from heading out west and then down to Texas before coming home. The Braves bats will get a look at Brady Singer who is coming off a beat-down by the hands of the San Francisco Giants and now has a much more daunting task ahead of him here. Atlanta is coming off a three-game sweep of the Reds and averaged almost six runs per game. Their .332 wOBA against righties ranks 10th in the majors and they’re swinging with power now as evidenced by the increasing ISO which is now at a .171 mark. I’ll just keep it simple and go with a straight-up win for Atlanta.
Pick: Atlanta Braves Money Line (-130 on DK Sportsbook)
**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.