We may not be a full two weeks into the 2023 MLB season, but we are already starting to see water finding its own level. Hot starts are cooling, cold starts are heating up, the books are starting to catch up with what is happening and it’s our responsibility to make the necessary adjustments as we move forward with the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks. We may have had our second-straight losing day, but we are learning a ton about the games and match-ups we choose. We also have to accept the old John Sterling adage of “Well, that’s baseball Susan,” as we got hit by a crazy extra-inning loss by Houston to Pittsburgh yesterday to go along with our obliteration of Sandy Alcantara the day before. These things happen. We also lost yesterday as the over hit in the Rays/Red Sox game, but fortunately, the Rangers managed to eke out the over on their team-total, also thanks to extra-innings. So the bankroll took a small hit, but we’re still way ahead of the game.

  • Yesterday’s Results: 1-2
  • Season Record: 27-11
  • Bankroll: +12.26 units 

We’ve got an early start to today’s action so let’s get to it.

 

 

MLB Best Bets for April 12

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

Today we let the trend be our friend as we have been picking on Lucas Giolito in day games for the past three seasons. There are a few things working against him. First off, he is a well-known night owl. I’m not saying he’s a party guy, but he’s also not going to be early the night before a game. He is routinely sluggish in day games, as evidenced by his day-time ERA being at least a full-point higher over the last two years. We’ve also seen a drop in his velocity this season and he seems to be thrown off by the pitch clock. We’ll back the Twins bats in this one. On the other side, Sonny Gray looks like he’s in midseason form with only one run allowed and 14 strikeouts over 12 innings. The White Sox have lost Time Anderson and Eloy Jimenez and they are struggling to produce runs and win games when someone other than Dylan Cease is on the mound. We’ll follow that trend and shoot for some plus-odds while doing it.

Pick: Minnesota Twins -1.5 Run Line (+130 on Caesars Sportsbook)

New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians

With Aaron Civale injured, the Guardians are turning to rookie Peyton Battenfield who makes a very tough debut today against a New York Yankees team that is locked and loaded with a .356 wOBA and .216 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. They are likely to be without Gleyber Torres who aggravated a hip flexor yesterday, but they also rested a few veterans like Giancarlo Stanton and they still managed to put up 11 runs on Hunter Gaddis and company. They should be able to hit Battenfield well today. He’s not exactly a lights-out pitcher in their system. I’ve really been torn with Clarke Schmidt as he looked string this spring but has really struggled his way through these first two starts. However, I feel like the over in this game might be a sucker bet. We’re expecting both sides to score freely, but I’m just not sure they do it enough to push the over 9.5 runs, so I’ll lay up a little on this two-day losing streak and just stick with the Yankees bats. I know – scared money don’t make money, but it’s still too early in the season to be taking too many chances. Build that bankroll.

Pick: Yankees Team Total over 4.5 runs (-130 on BetMGM) 

Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles

The two pitchers in this one, Dean Kremer and Ken Waldichuk have combined to allow 23 earned runs over 16.2 innings in four starts. That’s not good. Not even close. For the Orioles bats, putting runs up on the board shouldn’t be a tough task as they are destroying left-handed pitching with a .392 wOBA (second-highest in MLB) and they are doing it with serious power, as evidenced by the robust .259 ISO. Now, the A’s bats aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire, but they have managed a few games where they’ve posted four or more runs and in each one, they’ve done it against right-handed pitching, including Grayson Rodriguez yesterday. I see both offenses doing their part to help us with another game total.

Pick: Orioles/Athletics over 9 runs (-115 on BetMGM)

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned