Two days into the 2023 MLB season and we’ve turned a small profit with our MLB best bets as we look to build up our bankroll here in the early part of the season. Yes, we could have pulled in more with a bet on the Houston Astros run-line as opposed to taking the safe route with their money line, but there is no reason to take that much risk this early in the season when we are trying to assess how things are going around the baseball world. We’ll get there with some better odds and a few more risks, but for now, slow and stead wins the race. We also hit with the over in the Guardians/Mariners game but missed on the total for Rockies/Padres.  

  • Record: 4-2
  • Bankroll: + 1.16 units

We’ve got a nice, full slate of games today, so let’s get to it.

 

 

MLB Best Bets for April 1

Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros

The teams have split the series so far with the White Sox edging out Houston on Opening Day, but the Astros turned around and pulled a late-game comeback to even things up thanks to the bats of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. Funny, because Astros GM said Alvarez wouldn’t play every day, but he’s gone back-to-back and has been the only consistent producer. Still, today is more about White Sox starter Lucas Giolito who is a notorious night owl and has routinely struggled during day-games. Last year, he posted a 5.09 ERA during the day with a 4.31 ERA in night games and in 2021 it was 4.80 vs 3.01. Even if Alvarez doesn’t start, he’ll be able to come off the bench if needed. We’re getting decent odds on the money line so we don’t need to worry about too much juice.

Pick: Houston Astros Money Line (-125 on BetMGM)

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

Just like we’ve been backing the Astros, I have no problem continuing to go back to the well on the Braves, especially when they are taking on the worst team in the National League. Nationals starter Josiah Gray can post some decent strikeout numbers, but he is routinely victimized by the long ball, posting a 2.30 HR/9 or higher in each of the last two seasons. His career 5.17 ERA isn’t scaring this Braves lineup with its array of superstars. On the other side is 2022 hero Spencer Strider who dominated last year with a 13.81 K/9 and 2.67 ERA over 131.2 innings and came back this spring looking even more fierce with 21 strikeouts in 16 innings of tune-up work. I just don’t see how he doesn’t mow down this Nationals lineup. No one scares me…or him, probably. BetMGM has a run-line of -2.5 for Atlanta at +105 which is nice, but given the injury to closer Raisel Iglesias and the potential for the bullpen to be soft late in the game, I’ll play it safe here again.

Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 Run Line (-135 on DK Sportsbook)

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers

We’ve got an old-school NL West pitching match-up with Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner on the bump tonight. The only difference between now and the past is that neither is the hurler he once was, but that’s more so for MadBum who hasn’t posted an ERA better than 4.65 since the 2019 season. His strikeout rate is as down as his ERA is up and he just doesn’t have the movement on his pitches he once had back when he was playing for San Francisco. Not that Kershaw hasn’t had issues of his own, but his decline hasn’t been nearly as steep. He’s had tremendous success over the years against Arizona and should be able to handle this lineup for five or six innings before turning things over to the bullpen. We expect the Dodgers to have a significant lead by the time that happens. Even though I don’t love taking home teams on the run line for fear that even a one run lead in the ninth kills the bet, but we’ll make an exception here.

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Run Line (-120 on DK Sportsbook)

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned