Trying to place a value on a player like Trey Mancini provides some trepidation. He missed the 2020 season battling cancer but emerged victorious in September. On his way back to the lineup and fantasy consideration, can he come replicate his 2019 breakout in 2021? In case you forgot, Mancini launched 35 home runs with a .291/.364/.535 slash line with 106 runs and 97 RBI. He even chipped in with a stolen base.
His discipline metrics improved evidenced by a 9.3 walk percentage and 21.1 strikeout rate while recording a career low 11.8 swinging strike percentage. He grew his Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percentage to 83.4 and his overall contact rate to 75.4 percent. There may be times he battles fatigue in the upcoming season, but with a depressed price point in drafts, he may be a risk worth targeting.
According to Statcast in 2019, Mancini registered 464 batted ball events with 48 barrels (10.3 percent), a 90.3 MPH average exit velocity and 42.7 hard hit percentage. Tempering some of his upside, the expected statistics suggest some migration to the mean. He notched a .277 expected batting average, .501 expected slugging and .361 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA).
Within his batted ball data, Mancini recorded a ground ball rate of 46 percent with a 20.7 fly ball rate and 28.4 line drive percent. His solid plus barrel rates combined for 17.6 percent of his events with seven of 35 home runs being of the no-doubt variety (out of any major league park). His spray and slice charts illustrate his ability to hit for power to all fields:
As for the growth in plate discipline, his swing and take chart jumps off the page:
Due to a missed season, some rust may come into play but his previous two seasons include 59 home runs over 1,315 plate appearances (one every 22.3). Just account for migration to the mean within his slash line with eyes on 2021. Here's his projection sets from five sites:
Very reasonable expectations and with some good fortune, Mancini could come out ahead of them. Not only hoping for the best in regards to his health, pulling for him to win the Comeback Player of the Year.
THE BAT and THE BAT X courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski