Fantasy D/ST’s are one of the least consistent positions to rely on. Sure there’s potential for big games, but by and large defenses and special teams have trouble maintaining consistency. There will be games where a team scores 20+ points and the very next week they could earn negative points. It’s not a guarantee that the top defenses from a year ago translate to top D/ST’s in 2017.

The Best of 2016

Look at the Minnesota Vikings D/ST from 2016. They were the top-ranked unit from a season ago and they averaged 9.8 points per game. Honestly, that number is slightly inflated because this group collected 21 points in Week 17; a week that is largely irrelevant in most fantasy formats. Take away their last game of the season and they averaged just 9.06 points per game. But it gets worse…

In Minnesota’s first 6 games they hit double-digit fantasy points five times. In total they scored 94 points in their first 6 games. That’s a stellar start. But from Weeks 8-16, this team did not perform like a top 5 D/ST. Over that span they averaged just 4.66 points per game. That’s hardly a Top 20 D/ST. Not to mention they totaled just 4 points in Week 14-16, which is a horrible number to post during the fantasy playoffs. But they still finished as the top-ranked team for the hot start they had and the irrelevant Week 17 performance. If you’re still playing fantasy football in Week 17 you need a new league commissioner.

The same can be said for the Denver Broncos, the 2nd-ranked defensive unit from last season. They scored 14 points in Week 17, and had a very strong start to their season. The Broncos were one of the best D/ST’s up until Week 13. But in the crucial fantasy playoff weeks they totaled just 6 points.

And again the Arizona Cardinals were the 3rd-best D/ST from a year ago. A 26-point performance in Week 17 inflates their ranking. From Weeks 1-6 the Cards averaged almost 12 fantasy points per game. From Weeks 7-16 they averaged just barely over 5 fantasy points per game.

These were the Top 3 D/ST’s from last season. But neither of these teams helped fantasy owners much in the fantasy playoffs last year. This is why you don’t reach for a D/ST or commit to one for a whole season. The Seahawks, in recent years, were one of the units that were routinely reached for in fantasy drafts and they finished as the 9th best D/ST in 2016.

How to Approach the Draft

D/ST’s, like kickers, can be drafted last on to your team. In the most recent Fantasy Alarm Mock Draft the Broncos were reached for in Round 10, but no other D/ST went before Round 14. That’s relatively okay. By reaching for a D/ST before Round 14 you miss out on players with upside such as a backup QB, or Austin Hooper, Taylor Gabriel, Ted Ginn Jr., etc. So on draft day be patient and don’t reach for this position. There’s a good chance the team you draft may not even last all season and you’ll drop them within a few weeks anyway. And that’s perfectly fine. Most fantasy owners don’t waste an extra roster spot on a backup D/ST so there are plenty of options available.

Now who should you target in your draft? The team with the best early season schedule is the Pittsburgh Steelers. They start the year at Cleveland, home against Minnesota, at Chicago, at Baltimore, and home against Jacksonville. That’s a great start to the year for a D/ST especially in Week 1 against the Browns. This isn’t a unit that you would want to finish your season with. Unfortunately, their 2nd matchup against Cleveland comes in Week 17. And prior to that they have the Colts, Titans, and Packers right after their Bye and they have to face New England in Week 15 and that’s a crucial fantasy football playoff matchup. So ride the Steelers early in the season, but move on after Week 5 or sooner if things head South.

In-Season Strategies

Look at the O/U Total: The O/U is a great way to find a potential D/ST on the waiver wire. Look for the games with the lowest projected totals. From there, identify the team that is favored and see if they’re available on Waivers. Currently for 2017 Week 1 the Jets/Bills and the Jaguars/Texans games feature totals at 42.5 and 42 respectively. The Bills are a heavy favorite (-6.5) against the Jets so they can be targeted in your draft along with the Steelers. Throughout the season always peak at the O/U total each week to get a feel for how Vegas feels about the scoring opportunities for each game.

Research the Thursday Night Teams: The TNF games are awesome for NFL fans, but horrible for fantasy. The games are typically sloppy as the teams are playing on a short week, but this opens opportunities to find a D/ST.  Below are the scores and totals from all the Thursday games last season.

Week 1: Denver 21, Carolina 20 = 41 total

Week 2: Jets 37, Bills 31 = 68 total

Week 3: Patriots 27, Texans 0 = 27 total

Week 4: Bengals 22, Dolphins 7 = 29 total

Week 5: Cardinals 33, 49ers 21 = 54 total

Week 6: Chargers 21, Broncos 13 = 34 total

Week 7: Packers 26, Bears 10 = 36 total

Week 8: Titans 36, Jaguars 22 = 58 total

Week 9: Falcons 43, Bucs 28 = 71 total

Week 10: Ravens 28, Browns 7 = 35 total

Week 11: Panthers 23, Saints 20 = 43 total

Week 12 (Thanksgiving): Lions 16, Vikings 13 = 29 total

            Cowboys 31, Redskins 26 = 57 total

            Steelers 28, Colts 7 = 35 total

Week 13: Cowboys 17, Vikings 15 = 32 total

Week 14: Chiefs 21, Raiders 13 = 34 total

Week 15: Seahawks 24, Rams 3 = 27 total

Week 16: Eagles 24, Giants 19 = 43 total

As you can see 13 of the 18 games had totals of 43 points or less. 10 of the games had totals of 36 points or less. This isn’t a great spot to start a positional player in fantasy, but it’s a nice area to look for a D/ST. Both teams are usually tired and typically the away team loses a day of preparation just on travel alone so that’s another thing to consider when targeting TNF.

Monitor the Matchups: This one is just so blatantly obvious, but it’s the reason you stream to begin with. Like your kicker, you only want about 7-8 points per game from your D/ST. You can find that on the waiver wire by streaming defenses each week. Some teams worth taking advantage of this year will be the Browns, Jets, and Rams. Neither of those teams have explosive offenses so it’s worth looking for D/ST’s with a matchup against those bottom dwellers. If you want to get ahead of your league, grab the D/ST playing one of those teams a week ahead of time. Sure this may take up an extra roster spot, but if you can afford to roster an extra D/ST while waiting for a juicy matchup go ahead and do it.

Your D/ST won’t win your league for you, so you don’t need to go out of your way to grab one of the top-ranked groups from the season before. As noted earlier each of the top 3 D/ST’s from 2016 struggled to produce during the fantasy playoffs. Certain units will regress from the year before (think of the 2016 Panthers) and some teams will improve. Personnel and coaching changes will impact how teams perform. You’ll do just fine in your league by waiting until the end of your draft to grab a D/ST for Week 1 and then streaming the rest of the season.