Rapid Reactions

Considering the nature of the turnaround of this article, much of what I’m saying comes from the same amount of time you have had to watch the games each week. Published on Tuesday, the Running Back Workload is only hours removed from Monday Night Football, and a day removed from Sunday. I’m often analyzing the red zone channel like Sherlock Holmes trying to get an advantage, and while it is helpful, I will also use this section to get my thoughts on the page. Here are my top-five rapid reactions from the Week 15 NFL running back climate…

1)Chasing Down History, One Yard at a Time…

Coming out of the draft, Ezekiel Elliott made no secret of his desire to be chase down history in the form of Eric Dickerson’s rookie rushing record – set in 1983 – of 1,808 yards. Fast-forward six months later and it’s time for an update…

Currently, Elliott sits at 1,551 rushing yards and is running away with the league’s rushing title by a wide margin. With two games to go, he needs 258 more yards to break the rookie record. That leaves him in need of an average of 129 rushing yards per game over the final two weeks of the season. While that may seem like a tall task, keep in mind that, so far this season, Elliott has eclipsed that number five different times and has gone over 100 yards seven times over 15 games. What works best in his favor is that he’s coming off of back-to-back 100-plus-yard outings and just set a career high with 159 rushing yards in Week 15.

The Cowboys still have yet to clinch either the NFC East or home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They will definitely ride Zeke to the finish line. I like his chances to break Dickerson’s record, however, even if he doesn’t, one thing is for sure, Zeke’s historic season has effectively put to bed the question of “is an elite running back worth a first round pick?”

2) Giving Up History, One Yard at a Time…

With two games left to go, this season’s 49ers have already allowed the most rushing yards by any defense since 2013. Provided they maintain the pace throughout the final two games, they have a chance to finish as one of the worst rushing defenses of all time. At their current pace, the Niners are on track to allow over 2,800 rushing yards – a number which hasn’t been eclipsed since 1985 when the Houston Oilers allowed 2,814 yards on the ground, finished up 5-11, and dead-last in the then AFC Central. If I haven’t convinced you yet of the rarity of this tragic defensive feat, know that when the Oilers accomplished it the top box office hits were Back to the Future and Rocky IV. There has been plenty of football played between then and now. Yes, we are certainly witnessing history, but not exactly the kind that is aesthetically pleasing.

In the final two weeks of this season, they play the Rams (Todd Gurley) and the Seahawks (Thomas Rawls). Keep note of that if you are looking for some easy points in your championships or in some 50-50 DFS tournaments.

3) Against All Odds

A lot of wagers could have been made prior to this season that would have been considered outlandish or long shots. For example, that the Jets would go from 10-6 last year to one of the league’s worst teams. Or that Dak Prescott – a fourth-round rookie – would take over the Cowboys and lead them to the best record in football. But I can guarantee no one foresaw anything less-likely prior to the season than Packers reserve wide receiver Ty Montgomery transforming into Green Bay’s most effective running back by year’s end. But that happened in Week 15. That is today’s most unlikely of sports realities.

It’s because of these inexplicable occurrences that we watch sports. Because year after year they continue to surprise us, regardless of how much research we do.

Going forward, there is no question that Montgomery is the Packers best backfield option and I will go a step further and say that his emergence over the last month is one of the largest contributors to the Packers offensive resurgence. Unlike their other backs, Montgomery offers patience, nuance, and timely explosion to his carries, which really helps move the chains. Just when you think you’ve got him tackled, he breaks off a big run, leaving defenders in his trail. No more was that ever present than this past Sunday against the Bears when he finished with a career high 162 yards and two touchdowns.

Montgomery’s presence also gives Aaron Rodgers a more than reliable and accomplished receiving threat, which adds another dimension to their offensive repertoire. If by an off chance he is still available in your league and you are weak at the running back position, add him for your championship round this upcoming week. As for DFS players, his matchup against the Vikings is less than favorable, so I would advise against starting Montgomery. Having said that though, do not discount the amazing accomplishment of the former wideout this season. His transition is nothing short of remarkable.

4) “I Told You So” – Paul Perkins Edition

The New York Post is now writing about it, CBSSports.com is now writing about it, ESPN is now writing about it, NFL.com is now writing about it… I could go on and on, but it’s important to know that you heard it here first – seven months ago in fact.

“Paul Perkins is the best running back on the Giants roster.”

I tried to tell the Giants here, here, and here, but they still took 15 weeks to figure it out.

All joking aside, this is something that I gave up on during the middle of the season because coach McAdoo seemed so content with wasting Perkins on the bench in favor of the laboring Rashad Jennings, while in the process allowing his offense to slip to anemic levels. It is no surprise that this week – the first in which Perkins saw the field as much as Jennings – the Giants finally ran the ball effectively as a team and had one of their best offensive outputs in weeks. The numbers this past week should finally put the argument to rest... Both saw 25 snaps out of 64 plays. Perkins averaged 5.1 yards per carry on his 11 touches, while Jennings averaged 2.1 on his seven more carries.

To go along with the rest of the sports writing community, yes it is time for the Giants to unleash Perkins so that they can have an effective ground game when it matters most – headed into the playoffs. My point is that they should have just listened to me months ago and their offensive woes would likely have been stymied much earlier on.

5) The Robert Turbin Mirage – Looking Beyond Last Week’s Gaudy Fantasy Numbers

People tend to get very irrational when it comes to championship week in the fantasy playoffs, and understandably so, because it all comes down to one game. The belief is often that the addition of one hot player can change the outcome of your matchup, and while that may be true, finding the right player is most important. Owners find it hard to sift through the pretenders, and performances like Robert Turbin’s two touchdown one in Week 15 make it that much harder.

Let me make myself clear here: Robert Turbin is a mirage.

He’s yet to top more than 10 touches in a game and he’s yet to top 35 rushing yards in a game. Does that sound like a fantasy ringer to you? Add that to the fact that the Colts starting running back – future hall of famer Frank Gore – is coming off of a 100-yard performance in Week 15, and I highly doubt that Robert Trubin is once again relied upon in high leverage fantasy situations. His six touchdowns sure are impressive considering the utter lack of touches he has gotten this season, but would you stake your entire fantasy season on a player that has hit on one (19.4 fantasy points last) out of 16 chances? I certainly wouldn’t. Leave him on the waiver wires for this week and let your opponent make the mistake in starting him. Your bank account will appreciate it.

Nostra-Dom-Us Predicts

So I pretty much nailed my picks this past week, as all of my backs put up respectable numbers and helped me finish in the top-75 out of 2,500 in both of my contests. My best pick was LeSean McCoy, as he was in fact – as I predicted – the only “elite” priced back that finished with more than 30 points in DraftKings. DeMarco Murray may not have gotten into the end zone on Sunday, but his 89 rushing yards and excellent work as a receiver nearly got him to the comfortable 20-point threshold. On the more negative side, it should be noted that it wasn’t until Kenneth Dixon’s late game touchdown that he salvaged my “flex flyer” selection of him, while Lamar Miller disappointed to the tune of under 3.0 yards per carry and an ankle injury, however he still made it work by scoring a touchdown late in the fourth quarter.

Moving forward, I regretfully am here to inform you that these are my last Nostra-Dom-Us running back predictions for the season, as the fantasy championships are set to end on Monday night. It has been a great run and even somehow an improvement on my very successful rookie season last year.

What will follow this article is my “2016 NFL Running Back Workloads: A Season in Review” which will outline my annual “Running Back Awards.” I will review my preseason predictions for the awards and see what I got right and wrong. It is arguably my favorite write-up of the year. Following that is going to be my annual “Running Back Workloads: Keeper Rankings Edition” which will profile the top keeper options headed into the 2017 fantasy season. After that, it’s on to four months of NFL Draft coverage for me…

Anyway, I’m getting ahead of myself. Here are my final 2016: Nostra-Dom-Us Picks of the Week…

ELITE

LeSean McCoy ($9,000 on DraftKings) vs. MIA Defense

Shady is coming off of his sixth 100-plus yard rushing performance of the season and third of which he eclipsed 140 yards. This week he will be taking on a Dolphins defense that is 30th in the league against the run, and while they stuffed him last time they played for just 11 yards, I expect him to be seeking revenge in this one. He’s worth the $9,000 this week.

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,900 on DraftKings) vs. DET Defense

I outlined Zeke’s season in detail above, so it is pretty clear why he is a legitimate “elite” option almost every week. This week, the Cowboys need a win to clinch both the division and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They will look to win with the same formula that got them this far – a power running offensive identity.

Early in the season when Green Bay had the number one rush defense, Zeke pounded them for 157 yards. When Pittsburgh was in the top-five, Zeke hung 114 yards and two touchdowns on them. When Baltimore was number one against the run, Zeke rushed for 97 yards. When Minnesota was number one, Zeke rushed for 86 yards and a touchdown. When the Giants were in the top-five, Zeke tallied 107 yards. And just this past week when Tampa Bay was the hottest defense in football he racked up 159 yards and a touchdown. It doesn’t matter what the opposing defense is ranked against the run, Zeke and this Dallas offensive line will make you submit. I expect the same to be the case this coming Monday night against the Lions 11th ranked rush defense.

AFFORDABLE

Jordan Howard ($6,300 on DraftKings) vs. WAS Defense

I said a few weeks ago that Jordan Howard was one of the emerging workhorse backs in this league that no one was talking about. That continues to be the case, while he continues to get better. Howard was the biggest reason in the Bears near comeback victory over the Packers last week, as he grinded it out in the second half to the tune of 17 carries for 90 yards and a touchdown. This week he’ll have a chance at home to take on a bad Redskins defense that just surrendered 132 rushing yards to the washed up Jonathan Stewart. With his stock trending upwards each week, I love Howard at this affordable price on Saturday afternoon.

BARGAIN

Ryan Mathews ($4,000 on DraftKings) vs. NYG Defense

Look, this isn’t a pick that I absolutely love, but there is certainly value to be had. Mathews is coming off his best game of the season (128 yds, 1 TD) against the Ravens – the then ranked number one rush defense in football. With all of the Eagles injuries at the running back position, he not only is riding a hot streak, but he also is getting undisputed reps and touches. I know that the Giants are playing out of their minds defensively right now, but don’t forget that they did allow Zeke Elliott to gash them for 107 on the ground just two weeks ago. As I said before, I don’t love this match-up, but at this discount, I will be flexing Mathews in at least one of my lineups this week. There is just too much potential upside with minimal risk based off of this price.

FLYER

Paul Perkins ($3,200 on DraftKings) vs. PHI Defense

Another player that I discussed in length above, Perkins is just too cheap this week to not be flexed in at least one of your lineups. He’s the best running back on his team and is getting some serious buzz for a majority share of the touches going forward. In the Giants match-up this week, they get Philly. The Eagles are current losers of five straight, are allowing over 100 rushing yards per game, and are allowing over 4.3 yards per carry. The match-up is favorable for Perkins and at a near position minimum ($3,200); he may end up being the steal of the week.