Milwaukee Bucks vs Detroit Pistons

Milwaukee Bucks: -13

Game Total: 220.5

 

Here is what we pretty much know and have known well before this series began, the Bucks are going to win and likely win by 10+ points. They are up 3-0 in the series and they have an average margin of victory in each of those wins totaling 24 points. That right there is the issue, these games just aren't competitive and with a much tougher series against the Boston Celtics on the horizon I worry that if the Bucks go up big once again that the starters take a seat on the bench. Giannis has played 23, 30 and 28 minutes in the three games and averages 46 FP against the Pistons. I just do see how we can afford to pay up for him knowing he is likely playing less than 30-minutes tonight. It's not just Giannis we need to worry about however as Eric Bledsoe  and Khris Middleton  are also averaging less than 30 minutes a night during this series. Middleton has played the most minutes of the trio but all of their ceilings are drastically lowered because of it. Now, on small slates it's not the worst if you are getting 35 FP from somebody because there aren't that many on the slate with that type of upside but just knowing the floor is also a bit worrisome. Given price points, I likely find myself with Pat Connaughton  in my lineups. He is going to play his 25-30 minutes a night which is all we expect from him anyways and therefore he is still meeting our expectations. If this turns into a blowout early he may even get some additional run. Others that fall into that category on the Bucks are Sterling Brown  and George Hill  .

If we take a look at the Piston's side of this game we still have Blake Griffin  as a game-time decision.  Not that Griffin has made a huge impact in whether or not the Pistons keep it close but it's worth noting he tossed up 48 FP, scoring 27 points in 31 minutes in the lone game he played this series. He is the best scorer the Pistons have and with him in the lineup they only lost by 16 instead of by 21 and 31. The price tag on Drummond has come down a bit which is nice and though the Pistons have been getting blown out he still is seeing decent run and has rewarded fantasy owners with back-to-back 40 FP games. I think a lot of players in this one will be contrarian given the point spread so maybe Drummond is worth a look. The only other Piston players worth a look are Reggie Jackson  and Luke Kennard  . Both have at least contributed steady fantasy production over the course of the series. If you wanted to be a bit contrarian you could go with Wayne Ellington  who is playing minutes but just not doing much or Ish Smith  who can get hot and is cheap but the upside as it stands is limited.

 

Houston Rockets vs Utah Jazz

Houston Rockets: -3

Game Total: 214.5

This game is going to carry all the chalk and the highest owned player of the slate in James Harden  . Harden is coming off a horrible shooting night inwhich he went 3-for-20 from the field and 2-for-13 from three-point range but did go 14-for-16 from the free-throw line and filled up the stat sheet to finish with 57 fantasy points. In the series Harden is averaging 61 FP over 35 minutes a night. He is the highest priced player on the slate and for good reason and that is because we are expecting these games in Utah to be competitive. That theory did not let us down in Game 3 as the Rockets won by just three points and because the score was close we got 39 minutes out of Mr.Harden. Now, if he doesn't shoot so poorly then the game could have very well been a blowout but team's tend to struggle a bit in Utah and thus Vegas has the point spread for this one at just three points. If we look at Harden's supporting cast I think there are certainly a few routes you can go. Chris Paul  is an obvious choice. He is not going to put up monster numbers but he should be a lock for 30+ FP and that's not the worst. The same goes for Clint Capela  who is in the same price range as Paul and has also put up about 30 FP a night in this series against Utah despite his tough matchup against Rudy Gobert  . If we want some value then PJ Tucker  would be my first go to. Tucker is averaging 28 FP over the three games this series and matches up well against the Jazz forwards whether it be Derrick Favors  or Jae Crowder  . If you are looking for the scoring upside then Eric Gordon  is the play as he is averaging 25 FP during this series over 33 minutes a night.  If you think this game turns into a blowout then Danuel House  could be a punt play worth considering. 

On Utah's side of this match up it's honestly only a few players that I think are worth playing. Number one is Donovan Mitchell  for obvious reasons. Mitchell is the top scorer on the Jazz roster and he went for 57 FP in the team's Game 3 loss to the Rockets. If this game stays close it is because Mitchell went on to have another monster outing against the Rockets in this series. My next play would be Rudy Gobert  who is averaging 36 FP over the first three games of the series and put up an incredible seven blocked shots in Game 3. I know Utah is going to come out strong in this one and I can see Gobert setting the tone early on the defensive end. The last player I would consider worth being part of a core lineup would by Ricky Rubio  .  Rubio has played over 30 minutes in each one of the playoff games this postseason and has performed above expectations in my opinion as he is averaging 33 FP which is great production given the cost. Others such as Derrick Favors  and Joe Ingles  have been OK but have fallen below expectations during this series.  The punt play on the Jazz side would be Royce O'Neale . He has played 29 and 27 minutes over the last two games. He honestly does nothing for me but you can use them  all in game stacks or as price point plays but I am not personally in love with any of them in this match up.