We have just a two game slate this Thursday unfortunately, so instead of doing two seperate pages, one for the Playbook and one for the Optimals, we're just going to combine it into one. We'll still have optimals come out, but just one GPP lineup for both DraftKings and FanDuel around an hour before lineup lock. Enjoy the breakdown and let me hear back from you with any questions you may have!

 

Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs

O/U: 216 / GSW -7.5

 

Warriors

Primary Plays

In a game with a nice 216 spread and the best offensive team in basketball in town, I'm not too excited to roster many Warriors. It's a massive pace down spot for Golden State as the Dubs are sixth in the league in pace while the Spurs are 25th. The blowout potential is always a factor, even if Vegas believes this game should stay relatively close all the way through. 

If I were looking to roster someone, I'd start with Kevin Durant. It's hard to fade the stars on a small slate like this and make up the points elsewhere, so Durant will likely be a lock and load play for me. Durant's the highest priced played on this slate and his 48 DK points per game is right at the 5x mark based on that current salary. Let's not forget Kawhi Leonard is out, so we don't have to worry about his pestering defense at all. 

One player I actually am excited to roster from the Golden State side is Klay Thompson. I can save $1,000 on DK off of C.J. McCollum who's the top price SG on the slate for someone with similar and maybe even greater upside. Thompson's 23-percent USG is rock solid and he's had an extremely safe floor of around 29 DK points, a number he's hit in every game but one.

I have slight interest in both Stephen Curry and Draymond Green as well, but not nearly as much as the other two I mentioned. You can deploy Curry whenever you'd honestly like to in a GPP and he could get you 5x easily. All it takes is for him to get going. I'd just personally spend up on Durant in this spot, especially with Leonard out. Green's interest is limited because he's going to be working damn hard on the other end trying to defend LaMarcus Aldridge who's been unstoppable to begin this year.

Value Plays

The Warriors value players haven't shown me enough to deploy any of them either.

 

Spurs

Primary Plays

If you're not starting with LaMarcus Aldridge here, you're doing something wrong. Attacking Golden State with big men offensively has been a kryptonite of there's. Aldridge looked human for the first time of the seaosn the last time out as he scored a season low 11 points versus Boston. Before that he notched 20-plus every single contest. Recency bias would play more of a factor if it weren't a two-game slate, but his ownership tonight is going to be massive. Aldridge is a tough fade considering how good he's been and how bad the Warriors are at defending big men.

Value Plays

Dejounte Murray is in an interesting spot because we all know Steph Curry isn't the best defender there is out there. Murray is also a lot bigger than Curry, which is another advantage he can look to take care of. Murray's played poorly of late and has missed hitting value in three of his last four games. Recency bias could be a big factor as to why Murray is a good play here. 

Normally on a two-game slate, we're simply looking for a raw amount of points. We need the most we can get, so safety is a good thing. Rudy Gay has been just that this year. Coming off the bench, Gay has scored 20-plus DK points in every game this season. Because he comes off the bench, he'll see less Kevin Durant and Draymond Green defense which is obviously ideal. Gay is so cheap at 5.3K that even if he has a crappy game he could hit or exceed value.

The Spurs are playing WAY up in pace as I alluded to earlier, so giving a Danny Green a look might be worth it. Green is someone who loves taking transition three's, well, just three's in general. He's made two or more trey bombs in 5-of-7 and is down to 5K. He could easily mash value in this uptempo matchup.

Let's talk about Brandon Paul for a quick second please. He's played 19 minutes plus in four straight games including 30 minutes the last time out. He's the absolute minimum on DK and is a steal if he plays in the 20's in minutes on this slate. Lock him in and give yourself the salary relief. He barely needs to do anything to hit value.

 

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Portland Trailblazers

O/U: 210 / POR -6.5

 

Lakers

Primary Plays

Lonzo Ball gets a nice matchup against Damian Lillard who, let's just say, focuses more on the offensive side of the ball. Ball has struggled with his shot this year shooting just 33-percent, but the secondary stats have been beautiful. To go along with his 10.4 point per game average, he's pacing the team in assists (7.0) and is second behind Larry Nance in rebouding (7.3). Unfortunately, this is definitely a pace down spot for the Lakers, so Ball's full potential might not be flashed here. That said, maybe that's something that will surpress his ownership to give us a leg up on the field.

Value Plays

However, playing any other Laker besides Lonzo Ball is like playing Russian Roulette. Larry Nance would probably be the safest guy other than Ball on their roster. Nance has now seen 26-plus minutes in two straight games and has responded by posting games of 25 and 39 DK points repsectively. He's actually grabbed double-digit rebounds in 3-of-4 games. He's likely to stay on the floor in this one as he matches up nicely with Al-Farouq Aminu at PF. Aminu is a very good defender, but we don't want Nance because of his 1-on-1 skills, but for all of the other stuff he contributes.

If you don't like Nance, it's likely you're going to take a look at Kyle Kuzma or Julius Randle. We've seen that Kuzma is the real deal, at least scoring the basketball, he just simply doesn't see enough run on the floor to show off any massive upside. Randle has been a fantasy point-per-minute monster over his last four games, but he's only seen in the 20's once over that span, so he's really hard to trust. But if you are playing a two-game slate, who needs trust?

Jordan Clarkson is the last Laker I'm personally looking at. His role has diminished with KCP's arrival, but he's still top-10 in the league in USG. If he can get it going early, Luke Walton will have no choice but to keep him on the floor. Clarkson has never seen a shot he hasn't liked.

 

Trailblazers

Primary Plays

Very often we see KCP guarding the opposing team's best offensive player, which in this case is Damian Lillard. If that means we get a cross match between the two positions and C.J. McCollum ends up being guarded by Lonzo Ball, sign me up. I know I've already touted Klay Thompson because the reduction in price, but McCollum is super gifted on offense. Lillard's price has gone up nearly $1,000 bucks from last night, but it is a big pace up spot so if you wanted to play both Lillard and McCollum it's not a bad idea, especially since we're trying to be as different as possible on a two gamer.

Value Plays

I mentioned it when talking about Larry Nance, but Al-Farouq Aminu is really good in uptempo games and this is definitely one of those games. He's a great defender that could rack up the steals which we often see him do as he streaks away on a fastbreak. Aminu is one of my favorite plays on this mini slate and I'll likely have 100% ownership tonight if he plays seeing how he was injured on Wednesday.

With Aminu questionable, it's likely Ed Davis becomes the chalk value of the day. He's been a monster with Aminu active, so if he were to get a slight uptick in minutes, we're looking at someone who could potentially grab 15-plus rebounds. Obviously watch the news on Aminu as we progress throughout the day.

A pivot we could look at other than Davis could possibly be Noah Vonleh. Vonleh played in his first game of the season on Wednesday and played 13 minutes. If Aminu sits, someone is going to see an uptick in minutes and just last year, we saw Vonleh start plenty of games and even log up to 30 minutes in some games. If he is given the OK to play as many minutes as he can handle, sign me up on a slate we need to differentiate in.