For some time, Willie Calhoun appeared on prospect lists with a plus hit tool but without a position due to his liability on defense. A trade to Texas and transitioning to the outfield helped his stock but Calhoun languished still in the minors. Appearing in Double-A at the age of 21, Calhoun hit 27 home runs with a .254/.318/.469 slash, eight percent walk rate and 11.6 strikeout percentage. Moving to the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League at 22 years old, Calhoun played in 277 games the last three years with 48 home runs, a .297/.365/.509 slash, nine percent walk rate and 11.2 strikeout percentage. 

All told, Calhoun’s power surged in 2016 but his discipline held with a lower average. Then, his power rose again of late culminating in his 21 home runs, one every 14.7 at-bats with Texas last year in his 83-game sample. During his first prolonged stay in the majors, Calhoun hit .269/.323/.524 with 51 runs and 48 RBI. He reached safely in 65 of 76 starts and went through a bit of a consolidation of skills in the second half of 2019. 

Moving to the majors comes with adjustments on the fly but Calhoun kept his approach in line with a 6.8 walk rate and 15.7 strikeout percentage. His .256 isolated power reflects the advantageous hitting environment last year provided hitters, but Calhoun’s average did not benefit from an inflated batting average on balls in play (BABIP) at .262, seven points below his average. In terms of discipline, Calhoun owned a 7.2 swinging strike percentage with an 85.4 contact percentage and an encouraging 90.8 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) rate. 

According to Statcast, Calhoun recorded 258 batted ball events with 16 barrels (6.2 percent), an 89.7 MPH average exit velocity and 17.6-degree launch angle. Due to this being his first extended sample in the majors, it sets a foundation but not much can be read into it. Calhoun also notched a 35.3 sweet spot percentage and a 40.7 hard hit rate. Seeing his pull percentage spike to 50 percent hints he sold out a bit for power but to overcome shifts, Calhoun owned a 36.4 ground ball percent compared to a 22.1 fly ball percentage and 26.4 line drive rate. Here is his spray chart: 

When viewing his results on Statcast, Calhoun increased his zone contact percentage to 89.1 last season while cutting his chase rate to 28.9 percent. His swing percentage rose slightly but Calhoun reduced his whiff percentage by almost five points. Calhoun finished with a .268 expected batting average, .452 expected slugging and .330 expected weighted on-base average (21 points below his actual). Due to his strong on-base abilities in the minors at Triple-A, Calhoun should be able to overcome his xwOBA disparity from 2019. Here is his zone profile courtesy of Statcast:

Weighing pedigree with last year’s results provides a mixed bag of projections for Calhoun. Noting the power spike in baseball, repeating his home run per at-bat rate from last year will be unlikely. Using four of the projection systems on Fangraphs, Calhoun’s upcoming season could result as: 

  • Willie Calhoun 2020 Aggregate Projection - 131 games, 71 runs, 25 home runs, 76 RBI, two stolen bases, .267 average

It appears the projections remain less bullish on Calhoun’s average than power. However, with some migration to the mean with his BABIP, Calhoun could improve in batting average in the upcoming season. Before delving into the overall feel for his future, here’s how his projections would finish in two different shortened season scenarios:

  • Calhoun 108-game projection - 59 runs, 21 home runs, 63 RBI, two stolen bases
  • Calhoun 81-game projection - 44 runs, 15 home runs, 47 RBI, one stolen base

Paying for his aggregate projection makes sense but Calhoun could hit in the .270-range this year making him a more alluring player. Fantasy owners should monitor his on-base skills going forward while holding the power gains. There is an interesting skill set here and upside at his present price point.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Baseball-Reference.com