For long time supporters of Austin Meadows , the prospect, 2019 proved to be a coronation of his talent evidenced by his breakout. Meadows appeared in 138 games for Tampa Bay with 83 runs, 33 home runs, 89 RBI, 12 stolen bases and a robust .291/.364/.558 slash line. Although he profiled more as a potential 20 home run and 20 stolen base players, Meadows surged in power like many in the majors last year. 

With a 9.1 walk percentage and 22.2 strikeout rate, Meadows did not sacrifice his approach, yet his isolated power spiked to .268 though it feels like his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) could yield some regression going forward. Beneath the numbers, Meadows owned an 8.9 swinging strike percentage with a 78.6 contact percent, 87.9 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) rate and 27.4 O-Swing (outside the strike zone) percentage. These numbers serve him well as the Rays leadoff hitter against right-handed pitching during which he slashed .307/.382/.572 in 54 contests last season. 

According to Statcast, Meadows recorded 399 batted ball events with 50 barrels (12.5 percent), a 90.4 MPH average exit velocity and 16.7-degree launch angle. He displayed gains in both sweet spot percentage to 38.1 percent and hard-hit rate (42.9 percent). Trading ground balls (down seven percentage points) for fly balls (29.6 percent) and line drives (27.6 percent) resulted in Meadows finishing 25th in baseball in barrels produced. Here is his spray chart from 2019: 

While most of his home runs result to his pull side, Meadows owned a 41.1 percent pull rate. This along with fewer ground balls makes him more difficult to shift against, but any movement towards less fly balls and line drives could affect his BABIP along with his batting average. In terms of his discipline, Meadows decreased his swing percentage, but his whiff percent rose last season. At his age, Meadows remains a work in progress so his results in 2020 could provide more insight as to where his batting average settles in. 

Using the expected numbers on Statcast, Meadows finished with a .284 expected batting average in 2019 with a .547 expected slugging and .372 expected weighted on-base average (eight points below his actual). Not too skewed of results but some pullback in average could be pending. It is encouraging to see Meadows power numbers supported during his breakout. Here is his zone profile courtesy of Statcast:

Perhaps the most impressive part of Meadows 2019, the 138 games played. This represents a career high for the young slugger. Here are his games played, no matter the level since moving to High-A in 2015:

  • 2015 - 127 games
  • 2016 - 87 games
  • 2017 - 81 games
  • 2018 - 128 games
  • 2019 - 138 games

Buying into Meadows results from last year comes with some trepidation unless he is overcome injury issues. Being able to log at-bats as the designated hitter keeps him fresh but the Rays also own a very deep and match-up based lineup. Meadows launched nine home runs versus left-handed pitching last season with a .275 average so he’s able to stay in the lineup most games, but it needs to be baked into his projections along with the reduced amount of games over the course of his career. 

Also, there is some streakiness to his game. Meadows displayed tremendous growth in his power in the second half of 2019 with 21 home runs in 257 at-bats (one every 12.24 at-bats). But his stolen base success rate slipped stealing only four in seven tries. He also slashed .221/.257/.510 in August prior to his scorching September when Meadows owned a robust .378/.472/.744 line. Before delving into his projections, check out his rolling 10-game chart as a major league hitter with weighted on-base (wOBA) and isolated power (ISO) courtesy of Fangraphs:

Almost working hand in hand, owners targeting Meadows will need patience when he goes through a rough August prior to his mammoth September. Recency bias drives fantasy owners trying to find targets with power upside and double digit stolen base abilities towards Meadows. This resonates in his projection sets as well. Using the five systems on Fangraphs, here’s his average line from them for the upcoming season: 

  • Austin Meadows 2020 Aggregate Projection - 138 games, 81 runs, 27 home runs, 81 RBI, 14 stolen bases, .273 average

In spite of Meadows .284 expected batting average from last year, the projections seem to forecast a further drop. Using his results in the top two levels of the minor leagues, Meadows hit .318 in 51 games at Double-A but .264 across 178 games in Triple-A. Bake in his streakiness and Meadows could show some migration to the mean in terms of average. His gains in power resonate in the projections but the stolen bases will be intriguing to track. Again, Meadows needs to display better proficiency in the category. He went 8-for-12 in stolen base attempts in the first half but only 4-for-7 after the break. If a shortened season occurs, here is his numbers in two different scenarios: 

  • Meadows 108-game projection - 63 runs, 21 home runs, 63 RBI, 11 stolen bases
  • Meadows 81-game projection - 47 runs, 16 home runs, 47 RBI, eight stolen bases

Age and adjustments will determine the outcome for Austin Meadows in 2020. Digest all the information and invest accordingly. However, his average draft position requires acting sooner rather than later. 

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Statistical Credits: 

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

MiLB.com

Baseball-Reference.com