Sometimes the fantasy community can be tough. Last year, Mookie Betts turned in a “down” year in fantasy despite leading the majors with 135 runs. Betts appeared in 150 games with 29 home runs, 80 RBI, 16 stolen bases and a .295/.391/.524 slash line. Part of the disappointment could be the drop in power during baseball’s best power environment on record. However, Betts owned a 13.7 walk percentage against a 14.3 strikeout percent.

His discipline metrics remain elite with a minuscule 5.1 swinging strike percentage (tied for fourth lowest in the majors among qualified hitters), an 86.6 contact rate (eight best), a 93.7 Z-Contact percentage (in the strike zone) ranking fifth among his peers and a 21.4 O-Swing percent (out of the zone) sixth lowest. Discerning how much of Betts reduced production could be bad luck may determine his ceiling entering his Age-27 season coinciding with a contract year as a pending free agent.

According to Statcast, Betts recorded 505 batted ball events with 52 barrels (10.3 percent), a 91 MPH average exit velocity and 19.1- degree launch angle. Betts matched his 2018 sweet spot percentage of 39.4 percent last year with a 46.6 hard hit rate. Along with his improved launch angle, Betts generated his lowest ground ball rate over the last five years of 31.9 percent, kept his fly ball percentage steady at 30.5 percent and his best line drive percent (29.1) of his last five seasons. Betts pulled the ball with slightly less frequency using the middle of the field more and maintaining the gains using the opposite field. Here is his spray chart of all batted ball data from 2019:

Noting his strong discipline ratings from Fangraphs, Betts also displayed some intriguing gains on Statcast. He improved his zone swing and contact percentages last year. Although his swing percent also rose, Betts reduced his whiff percentage. Transitioning to his expected statistics, Betts owned an expected batting average of .311, an expected slugging percentage of .573 and .408 expected weighted on-base average (28 points higher than his actual). This may not carry over to 2020, but Betts could see positive migration to the mean across all three categories of his slash lines. Add this to entering his power peak in a contract year and a career season could be in the offing. Here is his zone profile courtesy of Statcast:

Over the last three years, Betts accrued 1,745 at-bats with 365 runs, 85 home runs, 262 RBI, 72 stolen bases and a .299/.389/.535 slash line. This provides a solid baseline from his past with eyes on the future. It’s encouraging to see Betts average projections using five sites reflects a boost in power for the upcoming season:

  • Mookie Betts 2020 Average Projection - 152 games, 117 runs, 32 home runs, 90 RBI, 19 stolen bases, .290 batting average

In the event of a truncated season, Betts projections would appear as such in two different scenarios:

  • Betts 108-game projection - 83 runs, 23 home runs, 64 RBI, 14 stolen bases
  • Betts 81-game projection - 62 runs, 17 home runs, 48 RBI, 10 stolen bases

Drifting from a top-three pick in fantasy drafts to later in the first round makes Mookie Betts an appealing target. He should hit close to .300 or better as reflected in his last three-year averages and his expected rate from Statcast. Hitting atop a loaded Dodgers lineup will not affect his ability to score runs at an elite level and he could produce a few more RBI.

Getting a player in the first round with the ability to hit 30 home runs and steal 20 or more bases makes Betts a rare commodity. Especially if he returns to an average above .300 in the year ahead. Fantasy sometimes focuses too strongly on recency bias but targeting Betts at a reduced price according to draft data makes perfect sense for 2020.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com