Although most of the off-season centered around figuring out if Francisco Lindor would be traded, he will open the year in Cleveland. Lindor’s on the precipice of free agency making him a worthy target in fantasy. Despite missing time in 2019, Lindor scored 101 runs with 32 home runs, 74 RBI, 22 stolen bases and a .294/.335/.518 slash in only 143 games. He’s the second primary shortstop to record three or more 30-plus home run seasons before turning 26 (Alex Rodriguez) and from June first one racked up 61 extra-base hits.

Not too much changed for Lindor last year with a seven percent walk rate and 15 percent strikeout percentage. His isolated power did not spike like most of baseball with a .234 percent. Lindor did increase his aggressiveness with a 35.4 O-Swing (outside the strike zone) percentage but slightly raised his Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percent while keeping his contact at 85 percent.

Within his splits, Lindor hit for a higher average in the first half with more power after the All-Star break. Lindor’s numbers in the second half get skewed a bit with a collapse to a .218/.269/.436 slash in September. Not sure if fatigue played a role without a full spring to get into shape, but keep this in mind during his projections which foretell a rebound in batting average towards the .285-to-.289 range across the board.

According to Statcast, Lindor recorded 507 batted ball events with 38 barrels (7.5 percent), a 90.6 MPH average exit velocity and 11.9 launch angle. Even though Lindor’s launch angle dipped a bit, he maintained his power numbers courtesy of the juiced baseballs from last season. Lindor also notched a 29.8 sweet spot percentage and 40.6 hard hit rate. Here’s his spray chart from 2019:

Noting Lindor owned a 45-percent ground-ball rate with a 22.5-percent fly ball rate and 24.3-percent line drive rate, he could benefit from migration towards his prior launch angles. Especially if the baseballs fly differently in 2020 based on early spring results. Lindor did increase his zone swing percentage and swing percentage with no rise in his whiff rate. Maintaining these discipline gains with a higher launch angle will allow Lindor to reach 30-plus home runs once again in his Age-27 year.

In a shortened season due to his preseason injury, Lindor returned value with a depressed draft price. However, his expected numbers lagged a bit compared to his actual results. Lindor owned a .276 expected batting average with a .462 expected slugging percentage and his expected weighted on-base average finished 19 points below his actual. It’s not great source of worry due to Lindor entering his power prime but here’s his zone profile as a reference point:

Over the last three years, Lindor’s appeared in 463 games with 332 runs, 104 home runs, 261 RBI and 62 stolen bases while slashing .278/.343/.516 in them. His average within this time frame of 154 games with 111 runs, 34 home runs, 87 RBI and 21 stolen bases formulates the baseline of productivity pushing Lindor into the first round despite shortstop being so deep as a position.

In a potentially truncated season, getting elite runs along with power and stolen bases makes for an intriguing target. With so many factors unresolved, Lindor’s projections for a 162 game season align with his last three year numbers as reflected in the ranges below:

  • 150-to-156 games, 94-to-112 runs, 32-to-36 home runs, 89-to-95 RBI, 17-to-22 stolen bases, .284-to-289 average

There’s some speculation Lindor will move down the order but if he hits first or second, he will accrue precious counting statistics without sacrificing batting average. Parceling out how his numbers would appear in a shortened season, this used 105 runs, 33 home runs, 87 RBI and 21 stolen bases as the baseline data:

  • 120 games: 84 runs, 26 home runs, 70 RBI, 17 stolen bases
  • 100 games: 70 runs, 22 home runs, 58 RBI, 14 stolen bases
  • 80 games: 56 runs, 18 home runs, 46 RBI, 11 stolen bases

Getting a productive player entering his power prime with a proven track record makes Francisco Lindor an appealing target in the first round. Deciding how to build one’s portfolio affects targeting Lindor in the first round, but knowing he produces across all five statistical categories increases his allure.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com