With the reminder, never pay for a career year, assessing Yuli Gurriel in 2020 will be intriguing. Last year, Gurriel recorded career highs in home runs (31) and RBI (104) over 144 games and 612 plate appearances. Gurriel’s been a source of batting average insulation and he slashed .298/.343/.541 in 2019. His spike in isolated power (.243) accompanied his career best 15.6 percent home run per fly ball rate.

However, along with all the speculative regression for Houston hitters, Gurriel’s outlier in power production cannot be overlooked. He reduced his swinging strike percentage slightly and kept his Z-Contact (in the strike zone) at 92.1 percent. His spray chart shows how Minute Maid Park enables his power with a short porch in left field:

According to Statcast, Gurriel recorded 505 batted ball events with 19 barrels (3.8 percent), an 89.3 MPH average exit velocity and 14.5-degree launch angle. Taking note of the low barrel rate, Gurriel ranked 181st in total barrels among all major league hitters yet hit 31 home runs? His hard-hit percentage of 37.5 does not suggest a major spike in this category but he did notch a 34.3 sweet spot percentage. Weighing these numbers suggests a repeat of the power surge will be risky.

In terms of his expected statistics, they agree. Gurriel owned a .284 expected batting average but the expected slugging percentage of .422 resides over 100 points below his actual while his expected weighted on-base average of .322 finished 42 points below his season total. Here’s his zone profile:

Before delving into his projections, Gurriel’s career 11.2 home run per fly ball percentage could provide the blueprint to his upcoming season. Representing a first baseman with batting average upside could be Gurriel’s best description. There’s room on a roster for a player like him, especially given the runs Houston scores, but with an eye on regression to the mean. Given all the factors within his results from last year, his projections reflect migration to the mean:

  • Yuli Gurriel 2020 Steamer Projections - 144 games, 600 plate appearances, 78 runs, 23 home runs, 90 RBI, five stolen bases; .289/.330/.486
  • Yuli Gurriel 2020 ATC Projections - 140 games, 585 plate appearances, 74 runs, 20 home runs, 85 RBI, four stolen bases; .288/.328/.469
  • Yuli Gurriel 2020 THE BAT Projections - 144 games, 628 plate appearances, 81 runs, 20 home runs, 82 RBI, five stolen bases; .278/.320/.451

Both Steamer and ATC do not foresee a collapse in batting average but THE BAT’s slash line ebbs closer to his expected numbers from Statcast last season. There’s going to be a potential wide range of results regarding Yuli Gurriel in the upcoming season. Bake this into the equation before taking him on a roster. If one needs batting average upside with solid, not great counting statistics, Gurriel makes sense. Relying on a season akin to last year could be misguided.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty