Targeting a catcher who will not harpoon a team’s batting average with some power upside makes sense. Last year, Kurt Suzuki fit the bill well hitting 17 home runs with 63 RBI over 85 games and 309 plate appearances. His palatable .264/.324/.486 slash line also benefited his owners with the only weakness being his 37 runs scored. Still, it’s nitpicking one category compared to his otherwise solid production across the board.

Along with being a year older, Suzuki could repeat most of his numbers from last year so building run insulation in a team portfolio allows owners to take him later in drafts. Suzuki notched a 6.5 walk percentage with an 11.7 strikeout rate and a .221 isolated power. His home run per fly ball percentage of 16 aligned with his 2017 number making 2018 seem like the outlier when looking at his recent production. There’s just not room for upside when taking Suzuki, he’s capable of a near repeat, but he’s not a ceiling play. Rather, Suzuki represents a safe floor option.

According to Statcast, Suzuki produced 247 batted ball events with 16 barrels (6.5 percent), an average exit velocity of 86 MPH and an 11.9-degree launch angle. His hard-hit rate fell to 32 percent in one of the best hitting environments on record which gives pause to thinking a repeat of 17 home runs remains in the offing for this season. Suzuki maximized his contact with a spike in sweet spot percentage to 39.7 percent, up 6.5 points compared to 2018. Here’s his spray chart with an eye on how much he relied on pulling the ball for power:

Suzuki’s pull percentage rose to 50.2 percent last year while he generated a 28.7 fly ball percentage and 27.9-line drive rate. His underlying statistics support his slash line with a .278 expected batting average and .459 expected slugging. Check out his zone profile courtesy of Statcast:

Kurt Suzuki ’s projections do not provide much variance, for all the reasons above, and read like this:

  • Kurt Suzuki 2020 Steamer Projection - 72 games, 296 plate appearances, 35 runs, 12 home runs, 42 RBI, stolen base; .267/.326/.461
  • Kurt Suzuki 2020 ATC Projection - 86 games, 331 plate appearances, 39 runs, 14 home runs, 50 RBI; .265/.323/.460
  • Kurt Suzuki 2020 THE BAT Projection - 78 games, 311 plate appearances, 37 runs, 13 home runs, 45 RBI, stolen base; .262/.320/.451

In a world of uncertain results, knowing Suzuki’s recent production keeps him relevant in two catcher leagues due to home runs, RBI and an average which does not present itself as a potential anchor. Pay for the Steamer projection and profit slightly if he hits the ATC one but value him correctly as a solid option, not an upside play.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty