At this time last year, debates raged whether Javier Báez warranted a second-round selection in preseason drafts. Baez racks up counting statistics with flawed plate discipline, which makes him a, sometimes, risky venture in batting average, yet he finished with a .281/.316/.531 slash-line last year. A hairline fracture in his thumb on September first cut his season short, but Baez appeared in 138 games with 89 runs, 29 home runs, 85 RBI and 11 stolen bases in 561 plate appearances in 2019. This would be a career year for many middle infielders.

Discerning his numbers going forward, one cannot overlook his strikeout percentage of 27.8 percent last year with a five percent walk rate. His average gets buoyed by a .345 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and Baez owns power upside within his .250 isolated power last season. Make no mistake, Baez will swing and miss often with an 18.3 swinging strike percentage and 66.7 contact rate beneath his high BABIP and .281 average. But it’s part of his game. Just like being one of the best defenders at his position. There’s going to be hot and cold streaks with a player like Baez, but one tolerates it due to his counting statistics upside without sacrificing average.

According to Statcast, Baez recorded 377 batted ball events with 48 barrels (12.7-percent), an average exit velocity of 91 MPH and a 7.6-degree launch angle. Seeing his low launch angle means Baez needs to take advantage of the baseballs he elevates. Fortunately, Baez accomplishes this with a 96.1 MPH average exit velocity on his fly balls and line drives. He also finished with a 43.6-percent hard hit rate (exit velocities of 95 MPH or better). Here’s his spray chart from 2019:

Many of the home runs hit by Baez registers in the no doubt category as seen above. One would speculate a hitter with flawed discipline metrics could own lower expected statistics. Baez ended with a .270 expected batting average, .503 expected slugging and .448 expected weighted on-base average on contact. Long story short, Baez can be unsound in his approach, but makes up for it with strong batted ball data. He also makes the most of mistakes. For an illustration of his expected numbers, here’s his zone profile:

Before delving into his projections, assessing how Baez rates among his peers could explain how his draft price seems to be dropping entering his hallowed Age-27 season. Over the last three years among qualified shortstops, Baez ranks fourth in home runs, RBI and average, sixth in runs and ninth in stolen bases. Not dominant in any category but solid production across the board. Right now on average, Baez gets taken 30 picks after the player in this comparison:

In no way should this be seen as dismissing the production by Trevor Story the last two seasons, but it appears fantasy stock on Baez could be trending down creating a buying opportunity as he’s on the precipice of a potential career year. Intriguing. Baez leads all shortstops in this sample in home run per fly ball percentage (22.8-percent) and owns a .241 isolated power.

Using the numbers from two different sites, Javier Báez still looks like a bargain play:

  • Javier Báez 2020 Steamer Projection - 150 games, 637 plate appearances, 84 runs, 32 home runs, 100 RBI, 14 stolen bases; .273/.313/.507
  • Javier Báez 2020 ATC Projection - 151 games, 614 plate appearances, 92 runs, 31 home runs, 96 RBI, 13 stolen bases: .275/.315/.513

Extrapolating statistics creates a slippery slope, but if Baez does not suffer a fracture in his thumb, he enters 2020 with consecutive 30 home run seasons with at least 10 stolen bases. Could his average regress towards his projections? Absolutely. However, with fantasy owners targeting players with 30-plus home run upside with double digit steals should make Baez more alluring, not falling in terms of average draft position.

Providing health, Javier Báez makes for a buy in 2020 with a chance at 35 home runs and 15 stolen bases and an average at .275 or better. When the market zigs, sometimes the savvy owners need to zag. Baez fits this mold.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

MLB.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen