Given the lack of depth at first base, identifying late round upside plays will be pivotal in case the tiers run dry. C.J. Cron played through a nagging thumb injury in the second half of last season but still launched 25 home runs in 499 plate appearances spanning 125 games. Moving to Detroit could cap his power upside, but a tweak in his approach could mitigate it as well. Cron finished last year with a 5.8 walk percentage, 21.4 strikeout rate and .216 isolated power. He scored 51 runs with 78 RBI and a .253/.311/.469 slash, which on the surface do not dazzle, but would be solid as a corner infielder given the time Cron lost to the injured list.

Ignoring Cron’s strong start to the season would also be a mistake. In the first half, Cron appeared in 77 contests accruing 331 plate appearances with 36 runs, 18 doubles, 17 home runs, 54 RBI and a .266/.326/.495 slash line. After the All-Star break, and playing through a nagging thumb issue, Cron’s production cratered to six doubles, eight home runs and 24 RBI with a .229/.280/.420 line in 45 games. This included two stints on the injured list.

Still, Cron reduced his swinging strike percentage to 11.8 percent last year, down 2.1 percent while increasing his contact rate by over four percent to 76.4 percent along with his Z-Contact (in the strike zone) to 84.8 percent. Carrying over plate discipline gains can be tricky at Cron’s age, but it’s worth noting as he transitions to hitting fourth in Detroit.

According to Statcast, Cron recorded 353 batted ball events with 53 barrels (15 percent), an average exit velocity of 91 MPH and a 12.7-degree launch angle. Despite missing just under 40 games last year, Cron ranked 16th in barrels in the majors. He also surged in hard hit rate with 44.6 percent of them coming with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or better.

Things also get interesting within Cron’s expected statistics. His .277 expected batting average and .548 expected slugging suggest he incurred some bad luck last year and his expected weighted on-base average of .366 sits 42 points above his actual wOBA (.324). Cron improved versus off-speed pitches with a .328 average against them after hitting .165 versus them in 2018. Cron improved his zone contact by 3.5 percent, reduced his chase rate and cut his whiff percentage by 3.7 points. Here’s his zone profile courtesy of Statcast from 2019:

Noting some of the red areas above, Cron could benefit hitting the ball to right field and down the line in his new home ballpark with the Tigers. Last year, Cron owned a 42.5 ground ball percentage, 23.8 fly ball rate and 26.3 line drive percentage pulling the ball only 38.2 percent of his batted ball data. However, Cron generated a 41.9 percent pull rate in 2017 and 43.5 pull percentage in 2018 which would mean a simple adjustment in his approach could unlock an uptick in power in Comerica Park, but he needs to avoid center field. Using all of his batted balls which were fly balls or line drives from the last three years in this spray chart with Detroit as the backdrop:

Cron’s improved his barrel percentage in each of the last three years and owned a .327 isolated power when pulling the ball last season. Plus, his ability to drive the ball to the opposite field could unlock some home runs as well if he avoids Detroit's deep center field fence. Plus, speculative owners will track his health this spring regarding reports on his thumb. But, focusing on his first half last year when healthy could yield a nice bargain in upcoming drafts and auctions.

First, check out Cron’s projections from three different systems:

  • C.J. Cron 2020 Steamer Projection - 128 games, 537 plate appearances, 70 runs, 28 home runs, 80 RBI, two stolen bases; .262/.324/.495
  • C.J. Cron 2020 ATC Projection - 135 games, 542 plate appearances, 62 runs, 28 home runs, 79 RBI, stolen base; .258/.317/.479
  • C.J. Cron 2020 THE BAT Projection - 128 games, 538 plate appearances, 66 runs, 25 home runs, 75 RBI, two stolen bases; .259/.320/.473

Even if the baseballs return to a less “juiced” version, Cron’s one year removed from hitting 30 home runs with Tampa Bay in 2017. He’s not playing in an advantageous ballpark, but his power can overcome this using both lines with shorter fences. Given health, Cron could be one of the cheaper 30 home run hitters at his present price point. Heed the counting statistics from the projections and profit if Cron plays in 135-plus games with an average at his Steamer projection. It’s possible and this makes Cron a very sneaky pivot at first base.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty