Playing the “Show Me” state, Paul DeJong set career highs in home runs (30), RBI (78), doubles (31), hits (136), runs (97), stolen bases (nine) and extra-base hits (62) in 2019. He’s hit at least 19 home runs in each of the last three seasons and 27 of his 30 from last year occurred versus right-handed pitchers. On the surface, DeJong’s power breakout masked his struggles in average hitting over .233 in only his first month of the season.

In fact, his average cratered to .202 after an appearance in the All-Star game over his last 72 contests but launched 17 home runs with a 20 percent home run per fly ball percentage. Unfortunately, DeJong traded line drives for fly balls after the break causing his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) to crater. DeJong’s power kept him afloat in terms of fantasy. Here’s a rolling chart of his season highlighting his line drive rate, fly ball percentage, home run per fly ball percent and BABIP:

All told, DeJong appeared in 159 games in 2019 with 97 runs, 30 home runs, 78 RBI, nine stolen bases and a .233/.318/.444 slash line. Everything he accomplished makes him appealing for fantasy except the batting average. It’s apparent DeJong may not reach the .285 average he owned during his 108-game debut in 2017, but determining how much positive migration to the mean could result in 2020 needs to be assessed in order to value him properly. Beneath his surface statistics, DeJong recorded a 9.3 walk percentage with a 22.4 strikeout percentage and a .211 isolated power. His BABIP dropped by almost 30 points compared to 2018 which aligns with the reduced amount of line drives generated. DeJong’s discipline metrics on Fangraphs remained stable with an 11.1 swinging strike percentage and he slightly increased his contact rate.

According to Statcast, DeJong registered 440 batted ball events with 38 barrels (8.6 percent), an average exit velocity of 87 MPH and an 18.5 degree launch angle. Here’s his spray chart from last year with all batted balls in play, but keep note of the concentration of home runs to his pull side:

In order to stay productive, DeJong pulled the ball for power and on Statcast his pull percentage of 45.2 percent (a career high) accompanied a drop in his hard hit percentage to 34 percent. His expected statistics of a .237 expected average and a .439 expected slugging provide a glimmer of hope, but could there be room for more? Before exploring, here’s DeJong’s zone profile from last season:

Returning to hitting the ball hard wherever its pitched could benefit DeJong going forward. Taking some of the red areas to right-center field with authority could unlock some untapped average gains. DeJong traded ground balls for line drives over the full season but really lost his way hitting fly balls in the second half with a steep decline in his average as a result.

Over his first three seasons, DeJong’s logged 382 games with 1,597 plate appearances, 220 runs, 74 home runs, 211 RBI, 11 stolen bases and a .251/.318/.467 slash. Within these numbers, he recorded a 7.5 walk rate with a 24.8 strikeout percentage. On Fangraphs, he’s increased his hard-hit data in each of these seasons.

Targeting power at middle infield pushes the draft prices of Trevor Story at shortstop into the first round. However, Paul DeJong 's price remains depressed due to the potential of being a batting average liability. This gets baked into his average draft position. However, three different projection sites forecast a rebound:

  • Paul DeJong 2020 Steamer Projection - 150 games, 642 plate appearances, 79 runs, 29 home runs, 89 RBI, seven stolen bases: .252/.322/.464
  • Paul DeJong 2020 ATC Projection - 153 games, 638 plate appearances, 84 runs, 29 home runs, 86 RBI, six stolen bases; .250/.321/.459
  • Paul DeJong 2020 THE BAT Projection - 154 games, 655 plate appearances, 80 runs, 30 home runs, 91 RBI, six stolen bases; .253/.322/.466

With projections almost in direct line with each other, any migration of DeJong towards the .250 batting average range enhances his appeal. Noting home runs will be in high demand, getting power production at shortstop or middle infield at a bargain makes DeJong a prime bounce back candidate in 2020. Especially if he’s focused on producing line drives during spring training while using the whole field.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty