For the fifth time in his six major league seasons, José Abreu notched at least 100 RBI setting a career high leading the American League with 123 in 2019. Over the last four years, Abreu ranks fourth in the majors with 611 RBI yet goes underrated every preseason. Chicago added Yasmani Grandal , Edwin Encarnación and will be opening the season with Luis Robert in centerfield adding depth to its lineup which should insulate Abreu’s counting statistics.

Over 159 games last year, Abreu recorded 85 runs with 33 home runs and two stolen bases with a .284/.330/.503 slash line. He walked in 5.2 percent of his plate appearances with a 21.9 strikeout rate. Abreu will swing and miss with a 11.2 swinging strike percentage but also owns an 89.2 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) contact rate.

According to Statcast, Abreu registered 492 batted ball events with 63 barrels (sixth in the majors) for a 12.8 barrel percentage, an average exit velocity of 92.1 MPH (14th best) and a 10.9 degree launch angle. His average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives of 96.1 MPH proves enticing although Abreu’s ground ball rate of 46.3 percent caps his home run totals. Check out his spray chart with all batted balls in play from 2019:

A key to Abreu’s rebound of 33 home runs, his 48.2 hard hit percentage. This reflects his batted ball data during which he notched an exit velocity of 95 MPH or better. It’s too late to change his swing for more fly balls, but his 26.6 line drive percentage and fifth best maximum exit velocity of 117.9 MPH means he’s capable of repeating 30 home runs in 2020. Abreu also fared well in his expected numbers with a .283 expected batting average, .520 expected slugging and .439 expected on-base average on contact. Abreu’s zone profile courtesy of Statcast reflects this:

Over the last three years, Abreu’s appeared in 447 contests accruing 1,937 plate appearances, 248 runs, 88 home runs, 305 RBI, seven stolen bases and a .285/.338/.510 slash. His isolated power of .225 and .315 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) align well with last year’s numbers as does his 18.3 home run per fly ball percentage in this time frame. It appears Abreu’s one of the more stable commodities at first base yet does not get valued as one in draft capital. Yes, upside may not reside in Abreu, but his projections reflect his consistency:

  • 2020 Steamer Projection - 149 games, 658 plate appearances, 87 runs, 32 home runs, 101 RBI, three stolen bases; .275/.332/.497
  • 2020 ZiPS Projection - 147 games, 584 at-bats, 72 runs, 28 home runs, 101 RBI, two stolen bases; .269/.322/.476
  • 2020 ATC Projection - 146 games, 644 plate appearances, 84 runs, 29 home runs, 103 RBI, two stolen bases; .278/.331/.490

Despite his three-year average of .285, each system foresees Abreu’s average slipping a bit in 2020. This can be attributed to his age as Abreu enters his Age-33 season. But, even with less than 150 games in each set, he’s on target to drive in over 100 runs. Use the ZiPS as the low tide of projections for a baseline but Abreu can hit more than 30 home runs with 110 RBI in his team’s revamped lineup. There’s no ceiling in José Abreu but a near replication of last year’s numbers would provide profit at his present price point. First base depth falls off around the 10th round in most drafts. As the average draft positions settle in, getting Abreu near pick 75 makes perfect sense. Sometimes, safety trumps upside.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

MLB.com - Game Notes

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski