What a difference a year makes for Max Scherzer . In 2019 preseason drafts, he went as high as fifth in many drafts representing the first pitcher selected in drafts and now his present NFBC average draft position rates him the fifth pitcher taken so far in live drafts. Concerns about workload along with some injury issues last season seem to merge in driving down Scherzer’s price point. So how should fantasy players valuate him?

Scherzer’s overall numbers from last season do not jump off the page with an 11 - 7 record over 27 starts spanning 172.1 innings. He finished with 243 strikeouts versus 33 walks with a 2.92 ERA, 2.88 xFIP and 1.03 WHIP (his first WHIP over one since 2014). However, Scherzer notched a career high swinging strike percentage (16.3), kept his contact rate below 70 percent and maintained his O-Swing (outside the strike zone) percent above 35 percent. His strikeout percentage of 35.1 ranked third among his qualified peers while his reduced walk rate of 4.8 percent placed seventh. Pretty, pretty good.

It seems difficult to believe, but Scherzer’s upped his strikeout percentage in each of the last four seasons from 15.3 percent in 2016, to 15.5 in 2017, 16.1 in 2018 and his 16.3 percent noted above. A slight tweak in his arsenal fueled this with Scherzer using his slider more last season. Scherzer did not yield a home run with the pitch and his slider produced a 40.5 strikeout percentage with a 50.6 whiff percent according to Statcast. Before delving into all of his pitches, here’s Scherzer’s repertoire illustrated:

With this in mind, and the usage rates appearing above, here’s his strikeout percentages and whiff rates with each pitch other than his slider:

  • Cutter - 37.9 K%, 26.4 whiff percent
  • Change-up - 37.1 K%, 39 whiff percent
  • Four-seam Fastball - 33.3 K%, 27.5 whiff percent

Using all parts of the zone, here’s Scherzer’s same chart with only the swinging strikes highlighted:

According to Statcast, Scherzer allowed 409 batted ball events in 2019 with only 27 barrels (6.6 percent), an average exit velocity of 87.4 MPH (up 1.6 MPH versus 2018) and a 13.3 degree launch angle. Despite the tremendous hitter environment created by the major leagues in 2019, Scherzer kept his expected numbers strong with a .206 expected batting average, .338 expected slugging and a top five percent expected weighted on-base average (.254). Here’s his zone profile from 2019:

Missing time with back issues and pitching through a broken nose did not derail Scherzer’s results. In fact, during 17 starts from May 22nd on he went 9-2 with a 2.44 ERA, 156 strikeouts, 19 walks and led the majors in FIP (2.45). Within this sample, his WHIP dropped to 0.93 with a robust 32.5 strikeouts minus walks percentage. Age and back issues may depress his draft price, but if Scherzer makes 30 or more starts, he’s a bargain at his current average draft position. For a look at how he commands the strike zone and the periphery of it, his swing and draft chart displays it well:

Over the last three years, Scherzer’s won 46 of his 66 decisions in 92 starts, amassed 598.2 innings, 818 strikeouts against 141 walks (5.8:1 K:BB), a 2.69 ERA, 3.08 xFIP, 2.86 SIERA, 0.95 WHIP and 28.6 strikeouts minus walks percent. His ranks among his peers from the above are as follows: first in strikeouts despite 10 fewer games started than Justin Verlander , tied for second in ERA, first in WHIP and second in strikeouts minus walks percentage. Scherzer’s won at least 10 games every year since 2010 and notched eight consecutive seasons with at least 200 strikeouts.

With many chasing the fancy new toys at starting pitcher, along with pitching prices escalating in drafts, Max Scherzer actually feels like a buy low. With health, he could return to a 300 strikeout season and his projections still pop:

  • Max Scherzer 2020 Steamer Projection - 15 - 9, 32 starts, 202 innings, 268:50 K:BB, 3.27 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
  • Max Scherzer 2020 ATC Projection - 14 - 8, 31 starts, 197 innings, 263:46 K:BB, 3.13 ERA, 1.02 WHIP

News of Scherzer already throwing in the preseason ramping up for 2020 will warm the hearts of his owners. It’s also covered in detail here:

 

 

One of the age old questions always remains in drafts and auctions, how to handle veterans with a stable skill set coming off of injury. Max Scherzer proved himself over his last 17 starts returning to form. His workload in the playoffs should not be too much of a concern since he missed time in the regular season. Taking Scherzer at or just above his present average draft position makes sense when anchoring a fantasy staff. In fact, even with a little risk baked in, pairing him up with someone like Blake Snell could result in 600 strikeouts. It could create peril, but it also could yield high dividends.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

BrooksBaseball.net

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen