During the 2019 season, an event occurred during pickups in May with an influx of players being promoted. While many spent most of their budget on Austin Riley , savvy fantasy owners needing speed took a chance on Oscar Mercado . He rewarded their investment with 70 runs, 15 home runs, 54 RBI, 15 stolen bases and a .269/.318/.443 slash over his 115 games with Cleveland. Mercado led American League rookies in runs along with stolen bases while finishing third in hits (118), tied for third in doubles (25) and in triples (three). Mercado missed being only the ninth rookie since 2006 with 15 or more home runs, 50-plus RBI and 15-plus steals with a .270 average by a percentage point.

Within his batted ball data, Mercado recorded a 21.5-percent line drive rate, 39.9-percent ground ball rate, 38.5-percent fly ball rate, a home run per fly ball percentage of 11 and a hard-hit rate of 39.7-percent on Fangraphs. He owned a 5.8-percent walk rate with a 17.4-percent strikeout rate and .174 isolated power. In terms of discipline, Mercado finished with an 11.3 swinging strike percentage, 77.7-percent contact rate and 77.7-percent Z-Contact (contact in the strike zone) rate. His 40.8 pull percentage accounted for 11 of his 15 home runs in 2019 in an extremely hitter-friendly environment. Here’s his spray chart from Statcast on hits before transitioning to his statistics from their site:

According to Stacast, Mercado recorded 365 batted ball events with 15 barrels (4.1-percent) and an 86.5 MPH average exit velocity with a 13.4-degree launch angle. His expected numbers do not portend any drastic changes in production with Mercado’s expected batting average of .262 and a .403 expected slugging percentage. His zone contact on Statcast rated as 86.8-percent with a 75.4 zone swing percentage. One can see his tendencies in Mercado’s zone profile:

Since Mercado made his debut in 2019, looking back at his minor league numbers may help predict how he will produce in the year ahead:

  • Mercado Triple-A (2018-2019) - 162 games, 686 plate appearances, 109 runs, 12 home runs, 62 RBI, 51 stolen bases; .281/.358/.411, 9.5 BB%, 17.3 K%
  • Mercado Double-A (2017) - 120 games, 523 plate appearances, 76 runs, 13 home runs, 46 RBI, 38 stolen bases; .287/.341/.428, 6.1 BB%, 21.3 K%

It’s very encouraging Mercado carried over his speed with some power to the major leagues. How many home runs Mercado hits in 2020 ultimately does not decide how he does in terms of fantasy, it’s more about his potential stolen base upside:

Mercado ranked in the 97th percentile of speed in the majors last season. He also stole 89 bases in just over 1,200 plate appearances between Double and Triple-A. Currently slated to hit second for Cleveland, Mercado could easily return value on his Steamer projection with any uptick in stolen bases with the category in steep decline across fantasy:

  • Oscar Mercado 2020 Steamer Projection - 139 games, 560 at-bats, 78 runs, 16 home runs, 67 RBI, 23 stolen bases; .256/.313/.402

In only 98 games hitting second for Cleveland over 409 at-bats, Mercado scored 63 runs with 14 home runs, 50 RBI and 14 stolen bases. His average could move more towards the Steamer projection but if he can stay near the Statcast .262 xBA, his profile gets a boost. Taking the over on runs and stolen bases, especially given his minor league numbers in the steals category. Repeating the home runs seems likely but he’s not going to be a candidate for fewer home runs if Major League Baseball changes how the baseballs fly in the year ahead.

Presently, Oscar Mercado sets up as a terrific fallback option for those hoping to land Luis Robert in drafts but miss out. Mercado represents a player with stolen base upside at a time of need for fantasy owners making him someone to target for runs and steals at his present price point. To ensure getting him, it may take a pick in the 90’s in redraft leagues, but he will be worth the reach if he gets 27-to-30 steals in 2020.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com