On the precipice of his third full season in the majors, Amed Rosario could be primed for a breakout. At a time when fantasy owners crave players with stolen base upside, Rosario ranked in the 94th percentile in sprint speed on Statcast last season, and in the 90th percentile of expected batting average. He’s finished in the top ten in the National League the last two seasons in steals along with the third highest total of caught steals (11) in 2018, and the most (10) in 2019. Any positive migration to a 70 percent success rate would push Rosario’s stolen base total to 25 or higher. 

In 2019, Rosario appeared in 157 games accruing 616 at-bats, 75 runs, 15 home runs, 72 RBI, 19 stolen bases and a .287/.323/.432 slash line. His batted ball statistics stayed in line with his 2018 numbers and Rosario improved his swinging strike percentage by 1.2 points while boosting his contact rate by 1.6 percent. After the All-Star break, Rosario surged to a .319/.351/.453 slash with six home runs and nine stolen bases in 70 contests. His swinging strike percentage dropped to 10.2 percent and his contact percentage rose above 80 percent. 

It’s important to note Rosario’s batting average and on-base percentage growth in the second half. On Statcast, Rosario recorded 497 batted ball events with an almost two MPH growth in his average exit velocity to 89.2 MPH. His expected batting average of .291, expected slugging of .423 and .377 expected weighted on-base average on contact provide hope for future growth. 

Check out his zone profile and key on the expected numbers:

Rosario also upped his zone contact percentage by 4.4 percent reduced his swing and miss percentage and increased his meatball swing percentage. Here’s his spray chart on hits from 2019: 

Although Rosario does not own a high hard hit rate, on Statcast he registered a 39.1 hard hit percentage with 193 batted ball events of 95-plus MPH exit velocity. Of more importance, Rosario recorded a 29.2 feet per second spring speed. Here’s how he ranks among his peers in the category:

Rosario’s grown his expected batting average and his average exit velocities since his debut. Both Steamer and ZiPS projections reflect this but do not fully reflect his surge from the second half of last season: 

  • Amed Rosario 2020 Steamer Projection - 573 at-bats, 71 runs, 15 home runs, 67 RBI, 20 stolen bases; .275/.318/.423
  • Amed Rosario 2020 ZiPS Projection - 598 at-bats, 76 runs, 14 home runs, 64 RBI, 21 stolen bases; .274/.313/.421

Amed Rosario enters his age-24 season slated to hit near the bottom of the Mets lineup. This will cap his runs and RBI but if he can approach his projected numbers in his counting statistics, there’s still value within his profile. In fact, movement towards his 24 steals from 2018 would insure this. Rosario can hit in the .285-to-.290 range and steal 25 bases, but will not be priced as such in drafts or auctions. This provides a unique opportunity to target speed upside later in drafts making Rosario an intriguing player to reach for ahead of his present price point. If he does break out, he could hit 18 home runs with 25-plus steals. 

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski