In 2019, no reliever recorded more saves from June 21st to the end of the regular season than Liam Hendriks . After replacing Blake Treinen as Oakland’s closer, Hendriks surged, converting 25 saves along with the second most strikeouts as a reliever (122). Noting Hendriks notched 124 strikeouts in 85 innings, he did make two appearances as an opener for the A’s prior to taking over the ninth inning. 

Savvy fantasy owners reaped the rewards of replacing Treinen in their lineups, or nabbing Hendriks off the waiver wire in late June. Hendriks finished 2019 with four wins, a 124:21 K:BB rate, 1.80 ERA, 3.21 xFIP and 0.96 WHIP. Knowing closers can emerge from nowhere, this transition began in earnest in 2018. Over his last 13 innings, Hendriks recorded a 1.38 ERA with 10 strikeouts against three walks, a .178 batting average against and 0.85 WHIP. He carried over the gains along with adding two MPH to his fastball, slider and curve last season. 

This velocity boost fueled a career best 17 percent swinging strike percentage, cut contact yielded to 66.5 percent, and he overcame an increase in fly balls by almost 11 percent with weak contact. Hendriks also adjusted his arsenal elevating fastballs, and burying his slider and curve for strikeouts. 

Furthering this point, here’s a chart with his swinging strikes generated:

Being able to command his pitches along with the velocity surge resulted in a career year for Hendriks. Fantasy owners will need reassurance it can be repeated. Especially after investing early picks in 2019 on Treinen and Edwin Díaz . Saves always comes with inherent risk due to the volatility of the category. 

Delving into his Statcast data, Hendriks allowed 185 batted ball events and 11 barrels (5.9 percent) with an average exit velocity of 88.9 MPH. His .185 expected batting average against ranked 20th best in baseball along with Hendriks .305 expected slugging at 16th best among pitchers with at least 100 plate appearances against. A key to repeating his success lies in his expected weighted on-base average of .229 which ranked third among his peers. Only Emilio Pagán and Kirby Yates finished above Hendriks in this metric. Noting Hendriks’ arsenal above, here’s his expected numbers with each pitch along with usage last season: 

  • Four-seam Fastball - 69.3 percent usage, .222 xBA, .384 xSLG, .275 xwOBA, 27 strikeout percentage and 29.3 whiff rate
  • Slider - 21.6 percent usage, .131 xBA, .170 xSLG, .149 xwOBA, 55.4 strikeout percentage, 54.2 whiff rate
  • Curve - 7.9 percent usage, .042 xBA, .111 xSLG, .059 xwOBA, 80.8 strikeout percentage, 55.8 whiff rate

With this in mind, here’s Hendriks zone profile to highlight how his arsenal evolved in 2019: 

It’s difficult to use the last three years in order to project Liam Hendriks . If his velocity gains hold, he’s worth investing in for saves for 2020. Do note he’s a pending free agent, so if Oakland falls from contention, Hendriks could be traded. However, he remains an inexpensive high leverage pitcher on a contender so he should stay put. Steamer projects Hendriks for a 4-3 record with 31 saves in 70 innings, a 92:21 K:BB, 3.17 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Given his numbers from last year, these seem well within reach, especially since the A’s play in a lot close contests. 

Closer prices seem to finally be settling in later in drafts after years of demanding owners follow this credo. Taking Hendriks after the 10th round makes sense as an anchor for saves. Track his velocities in spring and if his fastball remains at 96.5 MPH like in 2019, Hendriks can reach his projection above with a chance to come in below his ratios. 

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com