Young stars continue to take center stage in baseball. With a hat tip to our own Jim Bowden who called a Rafael Devers breakout, it could be an understatement. During his Age-22 season, Devers scored 129 runs with 32 home runs, 115 RBI, eight stolen bases and a robust .311/.361/.555 slash line. He joined only Joe DiMaggio and Alex Rodriguez with at least 90 extra-base hits prior to turning 23 in any major league season. DiMaggio recorded 96 extra-base hits in 1937 and Rodriguez 91 in 1996. Devers recorded 54 doubles, four triples and the 32 home runs for third best in history.

Not only did Devers make history in this regard, he joins two other stars in the majors to reach at least 30 home runs, 100 runs scored and driven in before turning 23 last season with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Juan Soto . They represent one-fourth of the players to do so in baseball history. Devers also led the American League in doubles while finishing second in hits (201). He racked up 60 multiple hit games fueling his .311 average.

Beneath his numbers, Devers registered a 6.8 walk percentage with a 17-percent strikeout rate. He generated a 21.3 line drive percentage, 44.4 ground ball rate and 34.3 fly ball percent with a 17.7 home run per fly ball percentage in 2019. His swinging strike percentage lowered although his O-Swing (swings and misses outside the strike zone) rose. Before delving into his Statcast data, here’s Devers spray chart on hits from last season:

Even at his young age, Devers realizes the benefits of the Green Monster. He does hit more baseballs to the right-center alley, but Devers proves capable of driving the ball where it’s pitched.

According to Statcast, Devers produced 531 batted ball events with 48 barrels resulting in a barrel percentage of nine. His average exit velocity of 92.1 MPH ranked 14th best in the majors. There’s no major change in his launch angle of 10.3 degrees which sets up Devers well for a repeat. Using his expected numbers, Devers finished with a .295 expected batting average, .519 expected slugging and .413 expected weighted batting average on contact (xwoBACON).

Other than the rising O-Swing percentage, there’s not many holes in Devers metrics. He hit 18 home runs versus fastballs, nine versus breaking pitches and five against off-speed pitches but with a .361 expected batting average. For his career, Devers owns a .282/.335/.501 slash in 335 games spanning 1,319 at-bats. He turned 23 in October of 2019.

Before looking at his projection, here’s Devers zone profile courtesy of Statcast:

Steamer projects Rafael Devers for 149 games, 552 at-bats, 89 runs, 30 home runs, 99 RBI, nine stolen bases and a .299/.355/.546 slash line. Not bad but not quite a repeat. Keep in mind, Devers accrued 311 of his at-bats in 2019 hitting second in the batting order with a 1.032 on-base plus slugging percentage. Currently slated to return there, with health, Devers should exceed his projections even if he does not reach 2019’s totals. Taking the over on runs and RBI along with a hope he could reach double digits in steals. Price point in drafts and auctions will increase for Devers, but he will be cheaper than Juan Soto with a chance for higher counting statistics due to a better lineup. Act accordingly.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com