Moving from Houston to Toronto did wonders for Ken Giles . Yes, he missed some time in 2019 due to injury but converted 23 of 24 save chances with the Blue Jays. Giles logged 53 innings last season with 83 strikeouts against 17 walks with a 1.87 ERA, 2.73 xFIP and an even 1.00 WHIP. Although he traded ground balls (down five-percent) for fly balls (up 6.5-percent), Giles overcame them with his second-best swinging strike percentage (18.7-percent) during his career.

For 2020, fantasy owners will need to discern how healthy Giles will be along with can he continue to throw more sliders than fastballs with effectiveness. Giles ramped up his slider usage to 49.4-percent last year compared to 49-percent with his four-seam fastball. This fueled his American League leading 39.9-strikeout percentage leading all qualified relievers but also caused strain to his elbow. He missed some time with right elbow inflammation which limited his outings.

In 2019, Giles only appeared in back-to-back outings on five occasions. His inflammation issues started to occur after working in three straight contests at the beginning of July. After this, Giles logged a consecutive outing one more time on August 31st and the first of September. The ood news is that Giles recorded ten saves through the end of the season but his owners struggled placing him in the lineup at the opportune moments to cash them all in.

According to Statcast data, Giles recorded a .185 expected batting average against, a .318 expected slugging and .245 expected weighted on-base average. He only yielded nine barrels of 108 batted ball events and kept his hard hit rate at 34.3-percent in 2019. Here’s Giles pitch plot from last season:

Noting the effectiveness of his slider, check out his expected numbers with each pitch from 2019:

  • Four-seam Fastball - .264 xBA, .514 xSLG, .372 xwOBA, 22.1-strikeout percentage, 25.9-whiff percentage
  • Slider - .119 xBA, .166 xSLG, .133 xwOBA, 56.1-strikeout percentage, 54.4-whiff percentage

See some red flags here? Especially within Giles fastball expected slugging and low swing with miss rate. It’s also on display in this chart:

Giles did well with elevated fastballs than his slider down and away. Concern lies in what happens if hitters lay off the slider forcing Giles to use more four-seam fastballs.

In order for a closer to return value on investment, he needs health and save opportunities. This will be crucial if spending draft stock or auction dollars on Giles. His 95.8-save percentage will entice, but can he pitch the whole season? Additionally, Giles will be a free agent at the end of the 2020 season, so if he starts strong, it’s possible Toronto will trade him prior to the trade deadline to a contender putting his closer status in doubt for the second half. Taking all of his into consideration, viewing Giles’ vertical release points for his career could provide some insight:

Hope lies in his rebound at the end of the season, though it’s not been consistent throughout his career in the majors. Over the last three years, Giles owns a 3-9 record with 84 saves, a 220:46 K:BB, 2.86 ERA, 3.06 xFIP and 1.08 WHIP. He’s limited contact to 67-percent against with a swinging strike percentage of 17-percent. Long story short, when healthy and confident, Giles remains a very good closer.

Steamer projects Giles for three wins, 30 saves, 65 innings, 82 strikeouts versus 21 walks, a 3.56 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. It bakes in some of last season’s xFIP with the usual volatility of a closer fluctuation in saves and ratios. If Giles stays within his last three-year rates, he’s a bargain as the eighth reliever taken in early average draft position. Reports of his elbow in the spring along with if Toronto plans on dealing him will need to be taken into account. Target Giles for saves at a bargain, but be ready to deal him in late May or early June before trade rumors surface. If, Toronto extends him to a deal, then Giles stock goes up with a cemented role as the closer. But this will be fluid throughout the 2020 season.

Ideally Giles slots in as a second reliever with upside but if he’s a primary source of saves for an owner, there’s inherent risk. Act accordingly.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

BrooksBaseball.net

Steamerprojections.com