Trust can be fleeting in baseball, just like in fantasy. This applied to Travis d’Arnaud last season. Cut by the Mets, he ended up in Tampa Bay and on many fantasy rosters in the second half of the season off the waiver wire. d’Arnaud surged with 16 home runs in 351 at-bats with a .251/.312/.433 slash line after escaping purgatory in New York. His second half .268/.329/.459 line with ten home runs in only 209 at-bats seems shrouded by how fantasy owners were previously burned by him.

d’Arnaud will head to Atlanta to reprise the role vacated by Kurt Suzuki getting the better side of a shared role with Tyler Flowers . Due to injury issues, d’Arnaud only appeared in four games in 2018 but did hit 16 home runs in 2017 as well. For an idea of how his last two full seasons look, here’s his spray chart from both 2017 and last season with Atlanta as the background:

d’Arnaud’s average exit velocity of 90 MPH last year comes with a boost to a 14.6-degree launch angle. Of more importance, d’Arnaud’s expected batting average of .262 and his .455 expected slugging percentage sit above his actual numbers. Remember, he’s heading to Atlanta which will benefit his power compared to Tampa Bay. d’Arnaud played in the National League and in this division for most of his career, so adjusting to a new league will not be a problem.

Armed with an expected slugging percentage 55 points higher than his actual, could d’Arnaud be a wide open sleeper? Time will tell. His slugging rate of .438 for 2017 and 2019 over 699 at-bats proves respectable at his position. During this time, d’Arnaud averaged a home run every 21.84 at-bats. Kurt Suzuki appeared in 105 games in 2018 accruing 388 plate appearances. If d’Arnaud can stay healthy, this seems like a template for his 2020 season. Using his home runs per at-bats above, this translates to his usual 16 home run pace repeated in both 2017 and 2019. Without knowing what type of baseball will be deployed in the season ahead, planning on a .250-ish average with 15-to-18 home runs this year seems likely for d’Arnaud. With some migration to the mean, d’Arnaud could pop 18-to-20, but do not plan on much more.

Travis d’Arnaud will not be a sexy pick in drafts for 2020, but he’s a solid catcher in two-catcher formats with some risk due to his injury history. Also, in terms of counting statistics, Braves hitters in the seventh spot scored 74 runs with 91 RBI in 581 at-bats while the eighth hitters crossed the plate 76 times while driving in 81, so his slot in the lineup should not depress his runs or RBI appreciably. d’Arnaud has a solid floor with potential for a repeat or a little better year than 2019, hence he’s sneaky since he will be overlooked.

It will be tough to rely on d’Arnaud solely in one-catcher leagues, but as a second catcher with upside, he makes perfect sense. As alluded to above, trusting d’Arnaud may be tough to do, but as a part of a better offense in an improved hitting environment, all he will need is health for a repeat of last year’s statistics. Just do not expect another level.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

MLB.com