Armed with major league pedigree and a name which lends itself to cool fantasy team names, Bo Bichette did not disappoint upon his promotion to Toronto last season. Bichette set a franchise high with 61 hits in his first 45 games in the majors. His 29 extra-base hits tied Ryan Braun ’s record from 2007 as the second most ever in a player’s first 43 contests. Prior to being shut down after a hit-by-pitch in September, Bichette launched 11 home runs in only 212 plate appearances. He scored 32 runs, drove in 21 and stole four bases.

Fueled by a .368 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), Bichette notched a .311/.358/.571 slash line along with an eye popping .260 isolated power. Knowing some regression will come for Bichette, it will be important to figure out how much and what he’s capable of in 2020. First, here’s his numbers in the two highest levels of the minors to form a baseline:

  • Bichette in Double-A (2018): 131 games, 595 plate appearances, 95 runs, 11 home rus, 74 RBI, 32 stolen bases; .286/.343/.453
  • Bichette in Triple-A (2019): 56 games, 244 plate appearances, 34 runs, eight home runs, 32 RBI, 15 stolen bases; .275/.333/.473

Although Bichette’s speed could keep his average higher aiding his BABIP, can owners rely on the power spike flashed in the major leagues? It remains to be seen. For our purposes, taking a look at his batted ball data from this time frame could help. Here’s Bichette’s spray chart, including all the line drives and fly balls from the two levels listed above:

With only eight more home runs in 839 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A compared to his 11 hits with Toronto, scaling back a bit on the home run total makes sense. Of course, Bichette will grow into his body and swing, so a slight increase in his power potential also lurks. Before transitioning to his major league data, here’s Bichette’s heat map from Double and Triple-A:

Part of the success incurred by D.J. LeMahieu in 2019 lied within his patient approach along with driving the ball to the opposite field. Bichette mirrors this approach in the heat map above. Take note.

Moving to his major league numbers, Bichette parlayed a 22.6 line drive percentage and 33.6 fly ball rate for a 22.4 home run per fly ball percent. Here’s his spray chart as a Blue Jay:

Bichette did hit most of his home runs to his pull side, but did hit three over the wall to right-center field. Although not as pronounced, Bichette’s heat map displays a willingness to drive the ball up the middle as well as the opposite field:

Note Bichette’s densest area remains in right field. Switching to Statcast, Bichette recorded 147 batted ball events with 13 barrels (8.8 percent), an 89.6 MPH average exit velocity and 10.3 degree launch angle. Of more importance, Bichette’s .273 expected batting average and .472 expected slugging align with his Steamer projection for 2020. Since hard hit data can be conflicting, keep in mind Bichette owned a 43.5 hard hit percentage on Statcast versus a 32.7 hard hit rate on Fangraphs.

In 2019, the cumulative total of Blue Jays lead-off hitters accrued 678 at-bats with 102 runs, 30 home runs, 77 RBI, 14 stolen bases and a .276/.335/.479 slash line. With this in mind, Steamer projects Bichette for 591 plate appearances, 75 runs, 20 home runs, 80 RBI, 20 steals and a .274/.328/.463 line. Savvy investors will take a chance on Bichette ahead of his average draft position because he hits lead-off, could provide profit on stolen bases and his underlying data does not predict a collapse in 2020.

Personally, taking the over on the runs, the under on RBI and the over on stolen bases regarding his Steamer projection. As drafts near for the upcoming season, it’s alright to let shortstops drift by in the early round and take a chance on Bo Bichette for upside in runs and steals without killing a team’s batting average. In fact, with some luck, Bichette could reach the projection above and provide his owners with a profit. Making Bichette a worthy buy for the upcoming season.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

MLBfarm.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com