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100 Thieves (NA Rank #6) vs. Sentinels (NA Rank #15) – 4:00 PM ET

Moneyline odds: 100 Thieves (-160) | Sentinels (+120)

Map Handicap: 100 Thieves -1.5 (+160) | Sentinels +1.5 (-215)

This is an online best-of-three series for the lower bracket round two of Champions Tour North America: Last Chance Qualifier.

100 Thieves ACS at event: Asuna 249 | Derrek 211 | bang 203 | Will 183 | stellar 176

100 Thieves ACS past three months: Asuna 223 | bang 207 | Will 204 | stellar 185 | Derrek 179

Sentinels ACS at event: Zellsis 211 | TenZ 203 | dapr 199 | ShahZaM 192 | shroud 184

Sentinels ACS past three months: Zellsis 242 | ShahZaM 218 | TenZ 207 | dapr 194 | shroud 184

H2H Data: 

These rosters have never faced each other. Both rosters have changed significantly since the teams last met in 2021.

Prediction: 100 Thieves win 2-1.

100 Thieves have had their roster together since April, and they continue to look better with each map played. Meanwhile, this is the first event that Sentinels have played with their current lineup, and they've only had a matter of weeks to practice with Zellsis & shroud in the mix. Thus, the pressure appears to be on 100 Thieves to get the win in this spot. 100T have looked solid and currently rank top three at LCQ with 204.4 Team ACS across six maps compared to 197.8 for Sentinels across five maps played. Asuna continues to deliver strong performances, which puts him as the second highest-rated player at the event with a 1.25 Rating. The biggest issue for 100 Thieves has been their weak attack side, which could be due in part to the fact that their duelist, Will, has performed below expectations so far. On the other hand, Sentinels have struggled a bit on defense, which could be influenced by opposing teams targeting the weakest link of Sentinels' defense, shroud. 100 Thieves have a 7-1 W/L record on Bind, but Sentinels will likely ban it to start, which hurts 100T's map pool. Sentinels have managed wins on Breeze and Fracture at this event, but 100T may ban Fracture to start, and 100T just beat FaZe on Breeze. Therefore, I don't see the map pool decisively in the favor of either team, and I think we could easily see three maps in this spot. I expect 100 Thieves to win a close series here and my favorite play on Draftkings would be to stack Asuna and Zellsis together.

Favorite Plays:

Asuna ($9,400) | Zellsis ($8,000) | bang ($7,200) | TenZ ($9,000) | Derrek ($6,400) | Will ($7,600) | ShahZaM ($5,200)

 

Cloud9 (NA Rank #5) vs. NRG Esports (NA Rank #4) – 7:00 PM ET

Moneyline odds: Cloud9 (-200) | NRG (+150)

Map Handicap: Cloud9 -1.5 (+130) | NRG +1.5 (-175) 

This is an online best-of-three series for the lower bracket round two of Champions Tour North America: Last Chance Qualifier.

Cloud9 ACS at event: vanity 251 | leaf 232 | Xeppaa 199 | mitch 188 | curry 148

Cloud9 ACS past three months: leaf 245 | Xeppaa 229 | mitch 213 | vanity 193 | curry 178

NRG Esports ACS at event: s0m 233 | tex 208 | eeiu 199 | Ethan 196 | hazed 186

NRG Esports ACS past three months: s0m 212 | eeiu 211 | tex 211 | Ethan 197 | hazed 177

H2H Data: 

These rosters have never faced each other. When these teams last met in January, Cloud9 were playing with xeta instead of curry and NRG were playing with ANDROID instead of Ethan. Cloud9 won that series 2-1 (13-1 Icebox / 12-14 Bind / 13-9 Breeze), Leaf led the server with 62 kills and 286 ACS across three maps played.

Prediction: NRG wins 2-1.

I'm surprised to see Cloud9 as such a heavy favorite in this spot. NRG rank above Cloud9 at LCQ with 204.4 Team ACS compared to 203.7 for C9, and I'd argue that their win over #9 ranked Evil Geniuses was more impressive than Cloud9's 2-0 win against #12 ranked Shopify Rebellions. Either way, I see this as a fairly even match-up, which automatically makes me lean towards NRG Esports as the underdog. The only change that C9 have made to their roster since these teams last played is adding curry, and he currently sits in dead last at the event with 93 ADR. There are only two players at the entire event with an ADR below 100 (curry & Reformed), so it is safe to say that curry has not been great recently. Vanity has been stepping up for Cloud9 in a big way as he leads all players at the event in terms of Rating (1.36), assists per round (0.51), and KAST (82%). However, I'm not sure if he can continue playing at such a high level, and it might be a troubling sign for C9 considering they are in the lower bracket despite vanity playing so well. NRG have a fairly deep map pool with a win rate of at least 50% on Haven, Split, Breeze, Icebox, and Ascent since the start of May. Bind has been the weakest map for NRG, but they just picked up a win against EG on Sunday, and we have seen Cloud9 ban that map to start twice at this event. NRG will likely ban Fracture to start, which would take away Cloud9's most played map since the start of May (tied with Ascent). All of the signs point to NRG being a live underdog in this spot, so I am happy to play them at a discount on Draftkings. S0m leads NRG in ACS at this event and he is only $5,000. Also, the pricing on Cloud9 is ridiculous. Curry at $8,600 is blatantly too expensive, and Xeppaa at $5,800 is blatantly too cheap. 

Favorite Plays:

s0m ($5,000) | tex ($6,800) | Xeppaa ($5,800) | eeiu ($8,200) | leaf ($9,800) | Ethan ($6,200) | vanity ($6,600) | mitch ($7,400)