Like many sports leagues, the EPL is expected to largely return to normalcy for the 2021-22 season. After a condensed schedule in 2020-21, we should have fewer double game weeks and, presumably, fewer three-game slates. The Premier League schedule was spread out last season in an effort to get as many games on television as possible but with fans back in stadiums, we should expect bigger Saturday slates. 

That would lead to bigger DFS contests and payouts, which makes tackling EPL DFS strategy before the season starts even more important. There is nothing better than waking up on the weekend to watch sports and seeing contest winnings in your account before lunchtime. With the strategy tips in this article, that could be a reality this season.

At this time, FantasyAlarm’s soccer coverage has been largely limited to the Premier League, though I did hit two of my Euro 2020 Best Bets. Hopefully, we will add more coverage over time but the great thing about these strategy tips is they apply to just about any soccer DFS contest. If you want to play Olympic or NWSL or even MLS contests, these strategies will help you win.

I have played and written about DFS for nearly every sport that is offered. I have found soccer DFS to be unique, for reasons I will get to below. That being said, if you have read our DFS articles for other sports or had success playing DFS in the past, some of those same strategies apply to soccer as well. We will begin with those strategy tips before we get to unique soccer strategies.

Many of the DFS tips you’ve heard for other sports also apply to soccer, including:

Watch The Games

You could argue that watching the games is more important for soccer than for other sports. While advanced stats have made strides in recent seasons, it is still awfully difficult to quantify the impact individual players have on a game that is often very low-scoring. For instance, chances created are a solid indicator of how threatening a team or player is on the attack, but it doesn’t capture a cross that is just barely out of reach of its intended recipient or a great attacking chance that is erased by a borderline offsides call. I prefer to use advanced stats, for all sports, to complement what I am observing with my own eyes, and not as a substitute for watching the games. 

Perhaps the most valuable part of watching the games is seeing how the players interact with one another. Does Chris Wood have the same chemistry with Matej Vydra that he has with Ashley Barnes? Who does James Rodriguez look to pass to when he has possession in the final third? Watching the games and learning the answers to these questions is especially important when it comes to our next tip.

Stacking Is A Viable Strategy, Especially For GPPs

Unlike some other sports, stacks for DFS soccer are best kept to two-player stacks. In small slates or when Manchester City is an overwhelming favorite you might want to stack more than two players, but two-player stacks are ideal.

Perhaps the most common stack is a goalkeeper and a defender from the same team. If that team keeps a clean sheet, you will earn an extra three points from the defender and five points from the goalkeeper on DraftKings. Hopefully, if your team keeps a clean sheet, you’re also getting a fair amount of tackles, passes intercepted and clearances from your defender as well. Oftentimes the goal of this kind of stack is to save money that you can spend elsewhere. You can obviously stack Alisson and Trent Alexander-Arnold, but it could cost nearly a third of your budget, and both of those players will likely have a lot of standalone value. Stacking Alex McCarthy and Jan Bednarek, on the other hand, will cost a lot less but could pay off if Southampton keeps the opposition off the board.

The other common stacking strategy is to choose two attackers from the same team. As we alluded to above, it is best to choose two players who you think will link up in the attack. If you can get a goal and an assist from the same play, you will have a big advantage over other entries. With that in mind, it often makes sense to stack a wide midfielder with a central attacker. The idea is that the midfielder will play crosses into the box, and the attacker will get on the end of one of those crosses and put it in the net. If you play a midfielder who will take corners and free kicks, you will give yourself even more opportunities for your stacked attackers to link up. 

As you may have noticed, both of these stacks are somewhat risky. You’re mostly hoping for goals or clean sheets for these stacks to pay off, and both of those are hard to count on. For that reason, I prefer stacks for GPPs. For cash games, it can be better to spread out the risk with players from more teams, especially in bigger slates.

Use The Vegas Odds To Your Advantage

Perhaps the most obvious position where the odds come into play is at goalkeeper. Securing five points on DraftKings for a win can be quite valuable, especially in cash games. Of course, the keepers that are big favorites are often the most expensive. It might be easier to use the odds to find the keepers and defenders who are most likely to keep a clean sheet. Be sure to look at both the over/under as well as which team is favored to win. I will also look at the goal odds for each individual team to find who is most likely to keep a clean sheet.

Using the Vegas odds for attackers can be more tricky. You obviously want to target games with high totals and teams with high implied goals totals, but even if you pick the correct game and the correct team, you still have to pick the correct players. Manchester City can be a great source of attacking returns, but with so many strong attacking players, it can be very difficult to pick the ones who will actually score. Teams that score fewer goals but only have a couple of reliable attackers like Southampton or Crystal Palace can be even more useful, especially if they have a high implied goal total.

The other complication in relying on Vegas odds is that when a top-six side like Manchester City or Liverpool is a heavy favorite, the most expensive players could all be from that team. Sometimes it could be worthwhile to actually fade that team, especially in a GPP. 

Specific Soccer Strategies

Know The Differences Between Sites

In the last version of this article, this tip was in the previous section. I moved it here because while it is true that every DFS game has different scoring among the sites, I believe the differences are most drastic in soccer. In some ways, it is like two different games. When I write the EPL DFS Playbook I often have to note which site I am recommending the player for because they usually are not a good play on both sites. 

The main difference between the sites is how points are awarded to outfield players. 

DraftKings is all about crosses, especially in cash games. Crosses tend to be pretty consistent from one game to the next, especially for those players on corners and set pieces. While we obviously hope those crosses lead to chances created and assists, even unsuccessful crosses can rack up fantasy points.

On FanDuel, attackers earn three points for chances created. Chances created are also known as shot assists or key passes. The terms can be used interchangeably, so keep that in mind when you are doing your DFS soccer research. We try to stick to the term chances created, since that is what they are called on FanDuel and they are worth the most points there. A shot assist is worth one point on DraftKings and while that is certainly nice, I believe it is less important than the 0.7 points awarded for a cross. 

The sites are also quite different in how they award fantasy points to defenders. Simply put, defenders on FanDuel get significant points for defensive actions, while defenders on DraftKings mostly get points for attacking actions like crosses.

FanDuel awards 1.3 points for every clearance, blocked shot, interception and tackle. That  increases the viability of central defenders, especially those who are going against the top sides. Players like Tyrone Mings and James Tarkowski can be awfully valuable on FanDuel thanks to all their clearances and blocks, but on DraftKings their value is often limited to a cheap Goalkeeper/Defender stack. 

While those defensive actions all earn the same fantasy points, they are not necessarily equal on the pitch. In the 2020-21 EPL season, there were 17846 clearances, compared to 12907 tackles, 11903 blocks and 8323 interceptions. I usually focus on clearances when I look at defenders for FanDuel but it is important not to forget the other categories as well.

While the biggest differences between the sites are in scoring, the differences in positions and positional eligibility is important as well. On DraftKings, you play two forwards, two midfielders, two defenders, a goalkeeper and a UTIL. FanDuel has four FWD/MID spots, two defenders, and a goalkeeper. Thus, you have a lot more flexibility on FanDuel. If you want, you can play only high-upside forwards or perhaps go safer and load up on midfielders. On DraftKings, midfielders who are eligible at forward can be quite valuable, especially for cash games. Similarly, identifying a couple of players you like with M/F eligibility can provide valuable flexibility when it comes to filling the rest of the positions. 

Know The Similarities Between Sites

Both sites value goalkeepers more or less the same. FanDuel awards more points for a clean sheet than for a win, and they award (slightly) more points for a save than they take away for a goal against. DraftKings, on the other hand, awards the same number of points for a Win as for a clean sheet. DK awards two points for a save but takes away two points for a goal against. But those differences are very minor. In general, if a goalkeeper is a good play on one site, he is a good play on both sites.

The other important similarity is that both sites award a lot of points for goals and assists. While we may focus on other stats for cash lineups (more on that in a moment), chasing goals is always a worthwhile GPP strategy, on any site.

Don’t Rely On Goal-Scorers For Cash Games

Goals (and assists) come and go, but crosses and, to a lesser extent, chances created, are generally pretty consistent. As we mentioned above, even if you identify a team that will score some goals, you still have to pick the players who actually score. It may seem like Michail Antonio is involved in every single West Ham goal, but there are actually plenty of times he will get shut out even if West Ham scores a couple of goals. Antonio won’t swing in crosses or complete a lot of passes, so if he’s not scoring goals, or at least putting shots on goal, he doesn’t have very much fantasy value.

Use Defenders Who Have A Chance At An Attacking Return for GPPs

This may be the only advice concerning defenders that applies to both sites. Lewis Dunk’s price and fantasy production may be drastically different between DraftKings and FanDuel, but the one thing he has in common is that the handful of times each season he scores on a header from a set-piece, he will be in a lot of winning tournament lineups. Similarly, you’ll want to have Lucas Digne when he gets an assist or creates a bunch of chances, even if his lack of defensive stats can make it difficult to play him in cash lineups on FanDuel

Save Money At Goalkeeper If At All Possible

Keepers can be a double-edged sword in a couple of ways. So I guess that would make them a quadruple-edged sword. Doesn’t have the same ring to it, though I bet a quadruple-edged sword would look awesome. 

When you pay up for goalkeepers in EPL DFS, what you are really paying for is the probability of a win and a clean sheet. With a few exceptions, the top-priced keepers are always on the teams that are favored to win and they usually have the best odds (according to sportsbooks) of keeping a clean sheet. The problem with paying up for these keepers is twofold. First of all, getting a win and a clean sheet is never as clear-cut as you think, especially once you get outside of the top three or four teams. All it takes is one counter-attack, one penalty, or one red card to ruin your chance at a clean sheet and perhaps even the win.

The other problem with paying up for a win and a clean sheet is there really isn’t any upside. You are paying for the best-case scenario. If you are lucky, you will get some saves from your keeper in addition to the win and the clean sheet, but if we expected the keeper to face many shots on goal, they wouldn’t be heavy favorites to win or keep a clean sheet.

This leads us to the other problem with keepers. Saves are the most reliable source of fantasy points, but in order to get a lot of saves, you need to face a lot of shots on goal. If you face a lot of shots on goal, you will probably allow a lot of goals, which causes the keeper to lose fantasy points. 

With that in mind, I usually try to pick a keeper who usually gets a lot of saves, especially if they are facing a team that doesn’t convert a lot of their chances, like Wolverhampton or Brighton. Occasionally you will luck into a win and/or a clean sheet at a very nice value. At the very least, you should pick up a handful of saves and you can use the money you saved on outfield players who should be easier to predict.

Strategies For The 2021-22 season

Don’t Underestimate Home-Field Advantage

We have to unlearn much of what we learned last season, and the biggest part of that is home-field advantage. Home teams were 144-83-153 in 2020-21, which was mostly played without fans. In 2018-19, the last season that was played entirely in front of fans, home teams went 181-71-128. EPL DFS players basically didn’t have to worry about which team was at home when the games were played without fans. For as long as fans are back, we should give home teams an edge when we consider who will potentially pick up a win or a clean sheet.

Be Open To Having Your Opinion Changed Early On

This probably could go in the section about strategies that apply to other sports. Sports during Covid have been weird to say the least, and so I am reluctant to look at how teams and players performed in 2020-21 and simply expect a repeat. In the NBA, we saw a lot of players who were great in the bubble turned into pumpkins during a more normal season. I expect several players who struggled during the Covid season to bounce back next season, assuming we get a more normal schedule going forward. 

For EPL DFS, that means I will be more likely than usual to react to surprising performances early in the season. If it turns out Brighton can suddenly finish chances, I’ll likely chalk last season up to being a fluke. If Harry Kane goes a few games without an assist, I will conclude the 14 assists he had in 2020-21 were the outlier, and expect him to mostly score goals going forward. I tend to be pretty stubborn when I form an opinion of a player, but following such an unusual time in the sports landscape, I will try to be more open-minded early in the season.

These are the general strategies we use in creating our EPL DFS Playbooks and Core Plays. As always, you can hit me up on our Discord server or on Twitter with all of your EPL DFS questions.