If you just look at a pitcher’s record, you’re going to miss on some solid seasons, as well as overpay for some that were, well, unimpressive. Pitching for the Detroit Tigers isn’t exactly rewarding, as Matthew Boyd was actually quite impressive in 2019. Despite his 9-12 record, he logged a career-high 185.1 innings, posted a lofty 30.2 percent strikeout and recorded a 1.23 WHIP. His 4.56 ERA wasn’t desirable, but his 4.32 FIP and 3.88 xFIP indicate that it should have been a bit lower and slightly more attractive for fantasy owners. It was a breakout season for the 29-year-old southpaw, but is there room to grow moving forward?

 

After posting a walk rate north of seven percent in each of the four previous seasons, it was great to see Boyd get that mark down to 6.3 percent in 2019. The added strikeouts and diminished walks gave him a career best 4.76 K/BB ratio. That mark ranked him 10th amongst qualified starters in 2019. Excellent! How’d he get there? Well, he made a few adjustments to his arsenal that helped, and batters chased out of the zone more. He was actually inside the strike zone less than ever before, but batters were swinging more at balls, so that definitely helps.

 

Boyd pushed his swinging strike rate up to 14.0 percent last year, which was nearly four percentage points higher than the following year. Yes, batters swinging at more pitches outside of the zone helped, but batters simply struggled to make contact against Boyd. When they did, it was often impactful, but his contact rate dropped from nearly 78 percent in 2018 – and even higher than that in years prior – to just 71.7 percent in 2019. Also, don’t underestimate the importance in getting ahead early. Look at that first pitch strike percentage.

 

The big jump in swinging strike rate, and strikeouts for that fact, had to come from somewhere. Let’s take a look at the pitches in his arsenal and deduce some key findings that contributed to this:

 

  • His fastball’s swinging strike went up over 3.5 percentage points, so that adds to some additional whiffs, and overall contact dropped against this pitch considerably. While he did cut down his fly ball rate a bit with this pitch, the 18.7 percent HR/FB rate was higher than usual and didn’t do him any favors. He’s a fly ball pitcher, but his primary pitch performed worse, despite trading some fly balls for grounders.
  • While his changeup didn’t register more whiffs (below career average actually), it did result in less contact overall. Sure, batters didn’t swing against it much, because it was out of the strike zone two-thirds of the time, but the contact rate was down, likely due to what I previously mentioned.
  • He didn’t use his curveball much in 2019, and he shouldn’t. Opponents crushed it last season, and sure, it generated a decent amount of swinging strikes (11.2% in 2019), it netted just five strikeouts compared to four home runs.
  • All he needs to do is ride the slider. It’s been his strikeout pitch, and it only got better in 2019. Opponents swung at sliders out of the strike zone 42.4 percent of the time last season, and his swinging strike rate of 20.1 percent with this pitch is phenomenal. He threw it more in 2019, and in 2020 and beyond, he’ll primarily be fastball/slider, with a changeup to mix in, and a show me curveball that hopefully doesn’t leave the yard every other time he throws it.

 

When he was missing bats, it was hunky dory for Boyd in 2019. When opponents made contact, it was typically solid contact. His average exit velocity of 88.4 miles per hour was the second-highest mark of his career, as was that 9.0 percent barrel rate. Being a fly ball pitcher and throwing your fastball up in the zone is going to be the root of some of this, and perhaps some more luck will help bring his home run rate down from last year. That will be key for Boyd in 2020. If the strikeout rate takes a step back, is he doomed? Or, will he get some better luck with fly balls staying in the yard in 2020? If it’s any consolation, his batted ball metrics from 2019 align quite similarly to Lucas Giolito . You know, for what it’s worth.

 

I’m not quite sure Boyd is going to be an 11+ K/9 again in 2020, but in a shortened season, his ability to rack up strikeouts is appealing. He likely takes a step back in this department, but he’ll remain over one batter per inning, and even if his home run returns to his career mark of 1.65 or his 2018 mark of 1.43, that’s still a significant reduction that will help out his ERA. Some of his marks are going to drop, and while some will be negative, others will be positive. Instead of striking out 30.2 percent of batters he faces this year, it will probably be closer to 26-28 percent, but as long as he doesn’t walk batters, he could post a sub-4.00 ERA this season.

 

Don’t push him up too far draft boards, because Detroit won’t give him much run support, but Boyd has every opportunity to outproduce his current average draft position of the 58th pitcher (including relievers) off the board. A repeat of last year outperforms this mark, and if others in your league are scared off by the 4.56 ERA of 2019 or pitching for the Tigers, grab him as your SP4 and grin.

 

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball