There’s no denying that David Peralta had a phenomenal 2018 season. He swatted 30 home runs, drove in 87 runs and slashed .293/.352/.516 across 146 games. I wrote Peralta’s player profile in 2019, and I warned many that his gargantuan power spike in 2018 was unrepeatable. I ended the piece with the following words:

“Peralta provides a solid floor in terms of batting average, but he will be unable to replicate the power numbers from last season.”

Well, the batting average regressed a bit, too, but .275 is solid, and in 99 games, he hit just 12 home runs. That’s better than other years, but not quite on his pace for 2018. If he didn’t miss time with injuries, his home run total would have been right around 20. Last year, he hit a home run every 31.8 at-bats, which is closest to his 2015 season, when he went yard every 27.2 at-bats. That year, he hit 17 home runs in 149 games.

After enjoying a 23.4 percent HR/FB rate in 2018, that mark fell to 14.6 percent last year....