Jean Segura has bounced around a little bit in the league, playing for five teams since he entered the MLB back in 2012. He’s played for the Angels (well, kind of), the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Mariners and last year was his first year with the Phillies. As he’s progressed in the league, he’s changed a bit. From 2013-2015, Segura hit 23 home runs in 434 games. Then, in 2016, his first year in Arizona, he hit 20 home runs in 153 games, and has hit double-digit round trippers in each of the past four years. Yes, the power numbers are down for Segura, and his .280 average last year was his lowest since 2015. We’ll get to the power numbers a bit later, but especially for Segura’s game, there’s a more troubling thing.

However, the more troubling thing is that his stolen base numbers are down. Last year, he tried to steal a bag just 12 times. That’s the lowest number in a season for him since 2012, when he attempted eight stolen bases in just 45 games! It’s down, and way down. Here’s another way to quantify this:

Year

Games Played

Total SB Attempts

Games Per SB Attempt

2012

45

8

5.6

2013

146

57

2.6

2014

146

29

5.0

2015

142

31

4.6

2016

153

43

3.6

2017

125

30

4.2

2018

144

31

4.6

2019

144

12

12.0

Courtesy of Fangraphs (and Excel)

Segura was pretty steady for the majority of his career, but boy oh boy, that number fell harshly. Interestingly enough, his spring speed hasn’t fallen off too far, as his 27.5 ft/s top sprint speed from last year was his third-highest mark in the past five seasons. He’s not running much, but perhaps he runs a bit more here in 2020, but if you’re asking me, I’m not betting on a bounce back season in the stolen base department for Segura.

Now, in terms of his batted ball profile, it’s not great. His barrel rate is low (3.5 percent barrel rate for his career average) and his average exit velocity of 88.0 miles per hour ranks in the 31st percentile. His Hard Hit Rate checks in at the 19th percentile, but since his speed still ranks above-average, his xBA remains high. Additionally, he’s in a good hitter’s park, so that can help pad some of those numbers, especially in terms of power. He only hit 12 home runs last year, despite posting the second-best ISO (.141) of his career.

He’s lucky he’s in a good park, because last year, his average exit velocity on just fly balls and line drives came in at 211th out of 250 qualified hitters. Yikes. When you look at marks from last season, he’s essentially Elvis Andrus in terms of batted ball profile.

Year

Launch Angle

Avg. Exit Velo

Avg. Exit Velo (FB/LD)

Brls/BBE %

Brls/PA %

Andrus

7.1

88.2

90.7

3.5

2.8

Segura

7.0

88.0

90.6

3.2

2.6

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

If you read my player profile on Andrus, you’d know that I’m quite bullish on him. So, by that, it means I’m in on Segura, too, right? Not quite. Yes, Segura is still in a solid hitter’s park, like Andrus, but new field dimensions for the latter’s home stadium will greatly benefit him. Segura isn’t getting that. Additionally, Segura has logged many appearances at second base, including his best statistical season, but if he plays third base, that’s a new position he will be playing as well. Sure, it’s a small factoid, but that does weight on a player. Furthermore, Segura hits lower in the lineup, and at this point, it’s easier for me to say here on April 11th that Andrus is a better candidate for a higher stolen base total than Segura.

Texas loves to run, more so than Philadelphia, so that exudes further optimism.

Team

2019 SB per Game

2018 SB per Game

2017 SB per Game

2016 SB per Game

Texas

0.81 (1st)

0.46 (18th)

0.70 (4th)

0.61 (10th)

Philadelphia

0.48 (13th)

0.43 (23rd)

0.36 (25th)

0.59 (11th)

Courtesy of teamrankings.com

The other way to look at this is that Segura is just a poor man’s Andrus. He’ll run less, I believe the home run total will be a bit lower, but Segura is still in a good park with a good lineup. Drafting him for stolen bases is a thing of the past, and don’t let the past sway your thinking. At 30 years old, it’s been a steady decline in stole base attempts, and after coming from aggressive teams to Philadelphia, there’s no room for an inflated stolen base total.

Before we wrap it up, one last thing to note with Segura: He’s dancing with the devil if you ask me. Take a look at the graph below, and hopefully you’ll see what I see.

Despite his O-Swing rate (swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone) trending upward, and his SwStr% jumping a bit from 2018, it hasn’t created a spike in his strikeout rate. His contact rate remains solid, but more swings outside of the zone and more whiffs typically don’t create a diminishing strikeout rate. Segura is going to punch out more than recent seasons in 2020, and that will take a toll on his batting average. He’s not going to tumble to .240 by any means, but it won’t be .280 in 2020. You can take that to the bank.

Shortstop is such a deep position and after Andrus, there’s not many guys that pique my interest. Segura is currently the 20th shortstop off the board, but he’s in that no man’s land, where if you miss on Andrus or Corey Seager , instead of taking Segura, a middling contributor across the board, why not boost power numbers with Paul DeJong or get some legit stolen bases numbers with Jon Berti?

I’m just not seeing it with Segura this year. If the batting average tanks, what good is he? Also, don’t assume he’s a lock for the starting lineup on an everyday basis this year. If he flops, he’s going to get benched.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
teamrankings.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball