After a few seasons in Seattle, Robinson Canó went back to a familiar area, just for a different team. In 2019, Cano suited up for the Mets, and in 107 games, he hit 13 home runs with 39 RBI and slashed .256/.307/.428. Cano’s numbers may be down from prior seasons, but the Mets have quite a few dollars invested in him, and he’s going to play as much as he can handle. The veteran second baseman is entering his 37-year-old season, but he’s hit higher than .280 in all but two seasons in his career (2008 & 2019). Is Cano’s 2019 season an inside look into what the aging middle infielder’s numbers will be like, or can he bounce back to his All Star seasons back in 2016 and 2017?

As Cano ages, his injury history is starting to pile up. Since 2007, he played in at least 150 games every season until 2018 and 2019. In 2018, he served an 80-game suspension and dealt with a fractured right hand. In the following season, he served IL stints with quad and hamstring issues, and was also day-to-day with a foot injury. Cano appeared in just 107 games in 2019, and his inconsistent presence on the field broke up his rhythm, and certainly affected his statistical output. Assuming his slash line stayed the same, over the course of a full 162 game season, he would have hit 19 home runs with 59 RBI. The power output is comparable to his early years in the bigs, but not the high quality numbers he was putting up with regularity from 2009-2017.

Interestingly enough, some of his numbers weren’t too far off from years past. His barrel rate, exit velocity and launch angle are quite similar, all things considered. Furthermore, his xBA of .280 last season was just 13 percentage points below his career average.

Year

Barrel %

Exit Velocity

Launch Angle

xBA

2015

7.1%

91.0

5.6

.296

2016

7.7%

90.1

11.6

.286

2017

6.3%

90.3

7.4

.298

2018

8.7%

93.1

8.3

.306

2019

7.4%

90.8

7.3

.280

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Yes. Soft contact is up a bit, but it’s actually quite close to some of the marks he posted during the prime of his career. It’s tough comparing some of his numbers to his overall career, because he was doing some good things with the Yankees with not as overwhelming numbers as you’d might expect. However, the numbers are still not as ideal we’d want.

Year

Ground Balls

Fly Balls

 

Soft%

Hard%

Soft%

Hard%

2015

25.1%

16.7%

9.8%

49.2%

2016

23.4%

29.2%

17.3%

36.1%

2017

16.5%

22.8%

11.5%

48.1%

2018

14.2%

29.9%

12.8%

47.4%

2019

24.7%

24.1%

14.0%

44.0%

Courtesy of Fangraphs

However, two things that cannot be ignored are the walks and strikeouts. Let’s start with the strikeouts. His 16.3 percent strikeout rate is the highest of his career. From 2016-2018, he was in the 13-14 percent range. Doesn’t seem like a big jump, but he’s a 12.6 percent guy for his entire career. Additionally, from the chart below, despite his SwStr% being relatively similar, but still elevated, the O-Swing rate jumped considerably in 2019. Could this be due to him failing to establish a rhythm as he dealt with various injuries? Possibly.

Chasing more certainly cut into his walk rate. Earlier in his career, he didn’t walk too much. However, he started being more patient and saw more ball fours. However, his 5.9 percent walk rate was his lowest mark since 2011 (5.6%) and he had a walk rate north of seven percent in four of the six seasons prior to 2019. Could this also be a product of inconsistent playing time? Perhaps.

Before spring training was halted due to the Coronavirus, Cano was hitting .300, which is solid, and had just two strikeouts in 20 at-bats. However, he also only had just one walk. Fantasy owners can live with a lower walk rate if that batting average can rebound, and his three doubles in spring indicate he was driving the baseball, since he exactly isn’t legging out doubles anymore, especially in games that don’t matter.

Cano is dirt cheap in drafts and you can have him after about 375-400 other players are drafted. The New York Mets have some attractive young bats that have some fantasy appeal, but the team has far more money invested in Cano, and money talks. Cano will get his at-bats, as long as he can remain healthy, and he doesn’t have to do much to provide a quality return on investment. Waiting in drafts and making him your starting second baseman or middle infielder is risky, but if you want an established bat for your bench, Cano is the perfect late round target. He will give you one stolen base if you’re lucky, but he can give you some nice average (fingers crossed for .280) this season with a little pop.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
baseball-reference.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball