Heading into last year, German Márquez was being proclaimed as the only player in the modern era to be able to overcome Coors Field as his home park. In 2018, he won 14 games and posted a 3.77 ERA, but a very respectable 3.40 FIP and 3.10 xFIP. However, after allowing a home batting average of .284 last year, that number jumped to .317 in 2019, not to mention a whopping .495 slugging percentage. He was still pretty good on the road, however, his slugging percentage he allowed last year was about 50 points higher than the season before. Marquez is very young, just 25 years old, but his home park remains Coors Field. What do we make of Marquez heading into 2020? Is he a talented young arm doomed by his situation, or does his talent outweigh the situation and he pushes that ERA south of 4.00? Let’s dive in…

Only two pitchers last year had a bigger discrepancy between their ERA and FIP for the year. Those two pitchers were José Quintana and Rick Porcello . For Marquez, he had a whopping 0.70 difference between his ERA (4.76) and FIP (4.06). His BABIP actually dropped from the year before, which is good, and for the second straight year he induced more ground balls. Especially for him, in home starts, he needs to continue to do such a thing.

He was fine in the strikeout department last season, but he was considerably down compared to the year before. In 2018, he posted a 28.2 percent strikeout rate, but that mark dropped to 24.3 percent last year. Now, to his credit, he also walked fewer batters. That’s something to be encouraged about. However, some of the peripherals are a bit interesting. Take a look:

 

K%

O-Swing%

O-Contact%

Soft Contact %

2017

21.0%

27.4%

58.1%

17.7%

2018

28.2%

30.7%

49.8%

17.5%

2019

24.3%

32.9%

52.3%

13.0%

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

He struck out fewer batters, yet he induced a higher SwStr% rate. However, he forced more swings and overall contact outside of the strike zone, yet he allowed less soft contact. Interesting. However, when you look at the two images below, you’ll see that the opposition had far greater success in terms of hard contact in the zone last year (right), compared to 2018 (left).

Additionally, take a look at this image below. Compared to last year, only Marquez’s slider generated more swings-and-misses in the strike zone.

Furthermore, they made more hard contact outside of the zone as well. This led to some marks that are worrisome.

 

Barrel %

Exit Velocity

Sweet Spot %

xBA

2017

7.1

88.0

31.3

.263

2018

5.6

88.9

31.5

.224

2019

7.9

90.2

34.2

.268

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Marquez was fine in 2018, but there were was great concern amongst the Marquez skeptics heading into 2019 about what could happen. Well, it did happen. He allowed a lot of hard contact, and when half of your starts are in a launching pad, it’s certainly not ideal.

The concerns about Marquez are well-documented, but he does have some positive things going for him. As stated earlier, he posted a career low walk rate last season, and he has one of the most devastating curveballs in the game. Last year, amidst everything, opponents hit just .130 against his curve, and he allowed just nine extra-base hits, per Baseball Savant. That pitch also posted a 43.8 percent whiff rate.

Yes, I was out on Marquez last year because I worried about statistical regression, but also his price last year was simply absurd. This year, there actually is an opportunity that you can get Marquez. He can struggle at home, but there’s actually room to profit. He’s currently the 68th pitcher off the board, and can be had in the middle of the 12th round in 12-team formats! This year, you can draft him as your SP3, which is much better suited for him, compared to being a SP2 or even SP1.

In the 12th round, Marquez is being selected along the likes of Sean Manaea , Mike Minor , Jake Odorizzi and Luke Weaver . Don’t get me wrong, Marquez is a talented young arm in the worst pitcher’s park in baseball, but that is solid value. Additionally, there are some loaded offenses in his division. The Dodgers have added Mookie Betts , and the Diamondbacks added Starling Marte to their already productive lineup. The Padres are retooling on what feels like a daily basis, and the Giants, well, he’ll dominate them!

You can profit on Marquez in 2020. I have my concerns about the hard contact and barrel rates he’ll likely allow in 2020, not to mention the home park, but I’ll buy into his arsenal headlined by a wipeout curveball and a career low walk rate from last season. As your SP3, Marquez is a fine selection, but don’t reach too far past his current average draft position. The more you reach, the more reliant on a repeat from 2018 you become.

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Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball