2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Paul Goldschmidt

For the most part, Paul Goldschmidt was “as advertised” in 2019. He was a stalwart in the Cardinals’ lineup, playing in 161 games, and he hit 34 home runs with 97 RBI. However, the stolen bases have essentially dissipated to nothing, and his batting average took a steep downturn last year, down to .260, which is his lowest mark in a season where he played at least 100 games. Sure, he had a strong run to end the season, but which version should fantasy owners expect in 2020? Let’s dive into that.

As a whole, some of his peripherals are trending in the wrong direction. His O-Swing% has increased for the third-straight season, all the way to a career-high 31.4 percent last season, which also pushed his SwStr% to 11.1 percent, his highest since 2011. His strikeout rate, believe it or not, actually dipped from the year before, and his creeping back closer to his career average of 22.7 percent. On the other hand, that walk rate has dipped again, and in fact, it’s dropped each year since 2016, which has forced his on-base percentage to decrease at the same rate as well.

It was more of a streaky season for Goldy, as he opened the year with nine home runs in March and April, but that plummeted to just two   round-trippers in 27 May contests. Then, he hit just .181 in June, before he was white-hot in July. The positives are that he hit 18 home runs over the final 72 games, and he elevated the ball a bit more, cutting into that ground ball rate substantially. It was a nice rebound for the former elite fantasy asset, but for the Statcast geeks out there, Goldschmidt’s prognosis isn’t positive. His average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant, is on the decline, and there are some concerns with protection in his own lineup.

The Cardinals won’t run Goldy a ton, and he’s stolen just 10 bases over the past two seasons. If he gets five to eight stolen bases this season, be happy. He’s not the fantasy unicorn he once was, when he was providing elite stolen base numbers at a position loaded with power and minimal speed. Goldschmidt is a pure hitter and remains a middle-of-the-order bat, but he’s slowly transitioning into more of a stable fantasy selection, rather than an elite, high upside choice.

Personally, I believe that what we get in 2020 from Goldschmidt is closer to what he was over the final 70+ games of the season. He should get to the 30-35 home run range for the fourth straight season, and that batting average should climb back up to the .270-.280 range. If you play in an OBP league, the key for him this season will be staying in the strike zone to get that walk rate back closer to the 13-14 percent range, which should help that OBP push north of .360 this season.

With Goldschmidt transitioning from a fantasy unicorn to a quarter horse, he becomes a more common asset at his position, and guys with far later average draft positions can be had, while expecting similar production. Consider the three players below, all first baseman, and their projections, courtesy of Steamer.

Projections courtesy of Steamer

Player A is Goldschmidt.

Player B is Carlos Santana .

Player C is Mancini.

It’s interesting to consider, nonetheless.

As you can see, it’s not all doom and gloom for Goldschmidt in 2020, and he’s still a guy that can be actively targeted. Compared to years past, he comes at a nice spot in early-to-mid 5^th round of 15-team setups. A .275 average with 30+ home runs and 90+ RBI with a handful of stolen bases easily returns value there, AND that’s not even banking the upside that he contains, because let’s face it, he’s still a natural hitter with a sweet stroke.

If you miss on Goldschmidt, there are similar options available to you later, but he is in a spot this season where any bounce back in batting average allows you to increase your return on investment.

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Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
Steamer Projections