2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: Eric Ebron

UPDATE (8/24): Andrew Luck's retirement hurts Ebron the most. In Brissett's full season as a starter in Indy back in 2017, the tight end was peppered with targets, but the position ended with just four touchdowns on the season. Jack Doyle had a great PPR season that year, but Ebron NEEDS touchdowns to be a TE1 in fantasy. He did most of his damage inside the 20s last season, and yes, this is a completely different season with Brissett, considering he actually had a full offseason to prepare for the job and not just two weeks like a couple years ago. Brissett has a documented rapport with Doyle, and Doyle is the guy who will work primarily outside the 20s, but can also be a threat in the red zone. There's a lot of weapons in Indianapolis, but the loss of Luck makes this incredibly worrisome for Ebron. He's a fringe TE1 in 10-team formats with Luck's retirement.

In four years with the Detroit Lions, tight end Eric Ebron scored 11 touchdowns. In his first season with Andrew Luck in Indianapolis, he scored 13 touchdowns! He set career highs in targets (110), receptions (66), receiving yards (750) and touchdowns (13). He was the TE4 on the season, trailing only Travis Kelce , George Kittle and Zach Ertz . He was a Pro-Bowler for the first time, and he carved out a large role in the Indy offense, especially in the red zone. His 21 red zone targets, per Pro Football Reference, were the third-most among tight ends and 10^th overall in the league. Inside the 20-yard line, Ebron had 12 receptions, 11 of which went for touchdowns. Jack Doyle returning from injury will eat into Ebron’s production in certain aspects, but with Luck’s tendencies to target his mismatch-making tight ends, there should be plenty of room for both to operate. Furthermore, with Ebron cementing his status in the red zone, he’s a threat for double-digit touchdowns again in 2019.

In the six games that Ebron and Doyle played together, the two combined for 25.7 percent of the target share. That’s immense! Despite being out targeted and outgained by teammate Doyle, Ebron was a larger factor where it mattered most. See below for the stats for the two tight ends when they were on the field together in 2018.

The touchdowns are arguably the most important factor up there, because all in all, Ebron and Doyle weren’t far off from a statistical standpoint. However, those seven touchdowns gave Ebron a massive boost in fantasy production. He scored seven touchdowns in six games with Doyle on the field, compared to six touchdowns in the other 10 games.

Ebron was the TE4 last season and one of just four tight ends to score more than 200 points in a PPR format. He led all TE’s with 0.35 fantasy points per snap and had the most fantasy points per touch amongst tight ends with at least 130 fantasy points last season (PPR). In the six games Ebron and Doyle played together, he was the TE4, and Doyle was TE9. Interestingly enough, Ebron actually averaged more fantasy points per snap and touch with Doyle healthy, than not.

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Since 1970, there have been seven instances where a tight end scored 13 or more touchdowns in a single season. The return the following year, on average, did not get back into the low teens again for a repeat performance. If we crunch the numbers…

Ebron was due for regression in the touchdown department anyways, but the historical trends strengthen the belief in this. Furthermore, the Colts have added another weapon or two to distract Luck from his tight end that thrived in the endzone last season. Of course, the return of Doyle plays into this as well, because it was Doyle who received more targets.

For Ebron to return value for his fantasy owners, he’s going to need to be a big factor in the red zone again, because he’s not a guy that is going to catch 80 balls for 1,000 yards. He’s going to hang out around 60-70 grabs for 700-800 yards, and bank on the touchdowns to inflate his fantasy value. He’s currently the TE7 off the board, and if he were to experience the touchdown regression and only score seven or eight touchdowns, the other tight ends being drafted around him (O.J. Howard , Evan Engram , Jared Cook ) maybe look more enticing. He's a risky TE1 selection, given that the touchdown regression is coming and will now be playing with a less talented quarterback. This is a big blow to Ebron and those who drafted him already.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/football