A player’s Average Draft Position (ADP) is a valuable tool for us to use when determining the groupthink or consensus on a particular player for the upcoming season, and using it as a “helper” is key to the beginning of a successful fantasy season. However, with great power comes great responsibility and misusing ADP can set you two step backs just minutes into the fantasy season.

In the second installment of ADP Trends here at Fantasy Alarm, it’s time to delve into some recent ADP jumps, as well as an interesting viewpoint on a particular shortstop between the NFBC and Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army.

Arizona Pitchers Trending Upwards

Unless you’ve been under a rock for the past couple weeks, you likely are aware of the humidor that is going to be installed in Chase Field. With the concerns over how it could sap some long balls from the stadium, a few pitchers in the Arizona rotation are seeing their ADP’s experience a slight uptick.

In a little over one week, participants in Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army are taking some Diamondbacks a few picks earlier. Look at the table below for the comparison:


MDA ADP on 2/18/2018

MDA ADP on 2/25/2018

Robbie Ray



Zack Greinke



Zack Godley



Taijuan Walker



Ray and Greinke saw minor increases in their ADP, but Godley and Walker saw sizable jumps, the greatest being the latter’s 16 pick jump! Godley kept the home runs down in 2017, greatly improving upon the 1.57 HR/9 mark he posted in 2016. That number fell to 0.87 HR/9 last season, thanks to a reduced fly ball percentage. With the humidor likely to suppress some home runs at Chase Field, there’s a good chance that Godley’s 2018 HR/9 is more comparable to last year’s rather than 2016’s mark. He should continue to strikeout around one batter per inning, but the more his ADP continues to rise, many could question if the investment is becoming too pricy.

Walker saw the biggest jump in his ADP over the past week, moving up a full round in 15-team leagues. Home runs have always been a bugaboo for Walker, but he posted a 0.97 HR/9 last season, which was his best mark since 2014. The fly balls might not hurt him as much this season as it has in years past, so the newfound love for Walker in 2018 is understandable. Take into account that he could push for higher strikeout clip (8.35 K/9 in 2017, but he did punch out 74 batters in 76 innings in the second half) and a reduced walk rate only adds to his fantasy value this season. Continue to monitor his price point, however, because it will likely only continue to rise.

What’s the Story?

There seems to be a noticeable difference on the thoughts of Trevor Story’s 2018 fantasy value. His current ADP is 118.73 in NFBC, but he’s not going in the Mock Draft Army until roughly 24 picks later. Why such a difference? We know what we are getting from Story; A high strikeout rate, moderate walk rate, below-average batting average and plenty of power and power potential. In his rookie season, he swatted 27 long balls and drove in 72 runs, before an injury cut his season to just 97 games. He remained relatively healthy last year, appearing in 145 games, but he only hit 24 home runs with 82 RBI and seven stolen bases. While his BABIP remained similar, his batting average dropped over 30 points, OBP decreased by 33 points (.308) and his slugging percentage was a whole 110 points lower than his rookie season!

Story is an extreme fly ball hitter who puts the ball in the Colorado air more often than he puts it on the ground. It’s hard not to be infatuated with a heavy fly ball hitter in Coors field, given the power potential that comes to play in this scenario.

The reasons for pessimism with Story could likely result from a few factoids. The first could be that it’s a completely different "story" when he isn’t playing at Coors Field. His batting average is over 50 points lower away from Coors Field! Don’t worry, that’s nothing we haven’t heard from with other guys before, too. Secondly, Story struggles with righties, hitting just .238 against them, compared to a quality .292 average against southpaws. Another reason could be the fact that a shortstop named Brendan Rodgers is waiting in the wings and he has a polished pedigree.

Story offers plus power at the position, but the batting average will be major drain and he’ll likely post a K% of 30 or above for the majority of his pro career.


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