The 2026 NCAA Tournament is off and running! We had plenty of entertaining March Madness first-round action on Thursday and Friday with a few notable upsets busting brackets. Let’s do it all again with the second round getting underway on Saturday, March 21st. Check out our College Basketball Best Bets Today as you follow along with your own brackets. There are plenty more ways to go with our college basketball predictions. Note that all odds and betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but are always subject to change. Good luck!

College Basketball Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 3/21

Our NCAA Tournament college basketball best bets today begin with No. 2 seed Houston taking on No. 10 seed Texas A&M. Can the Cougars keep rolling, or will the Aggies pull off another upset? Plus, our college basketball picks feature a 4-vs-5 showdown between Nebraska and Vanderbilt. Which team can get it done to advance on to the Sweet 16? Check out even more college basketball predictions below for other top games on Saturday. Enjoy March Madness with our college basketball best bets today. 

 

Texas A&M vs. Houston Prediction: Saturday, 3/21

Texas A&M was one of multiple double-digit seeds to pull off upsets during Thursday’s first-round action. The Aggies led Saint Mary’s from start to finish in a convincing 13-point victory. Meanwhile, Houston routed Idaho with a 78-47 blowout win of its own. The Cougars are 10.5-point favorites in this matchup, and they should win comfortably. 

Houston’s path to victory will hinge on its suffocating defense and deliberate, slow pace. The Cougars rank 4th nationally in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and allow just 62.4 PPG (2nd-best in Division I). They also play at the one of the slowest tempos in the country (350th), using relentless defensive pressure to force opponents deep into the shot clock. 

The Cougs also force turnovers at a top-15 rate while ranking among the top 10 in two-point defense. Protecting the paint will be especially important against Texas A&M big man Rashaun Agee, who does most of his damage around the rim. Houston’s frontcourt, led by Chris Cenac and Joseph Tugler, has the size and defensive instincts to limit Agee’s impact. 

If Agee is neutralized, scoring could become a major issue for Texas A&M. He dropped 22 points in the first round, yet A&M still finished with just 63 total. Like Houston, Saint Mary’s also plays at a slow tempo and features a strong defense. We just saw that push the Aggies out of their rhythm. They prefer to play fast, ranking 16th nationally in offensive tempo and 39th in overall pace – essentially the opposite of Houston’s style. 

Defensively, Texas A&M’s identity revolves around its aggressive full-court press under head coach Bucky McMillian. It tends to go one of two ways for the opposition. Some teams struggle just to cross halfcourt, leading to rushed possessions and turnovers. That’s exactly what happened to Saint Mary’s, which coughed it up 18 times and shot only 38% from the field. 

However, if opponents break the press, A&M’s defense is very vulnerable and can surrender 80-90 points. It occurred frequently against top SEC competition, and Houston can follow suit today. The Cougars have multiple reliable ball-handlers in Kingston Flemings, Emanuel Sharp, and Milos Uzan. The offense also ranks 7th nationally in avoiding turnovers, which should help them handle the press. 

It’s also worth noting that Texas A&M has struggled against elite competition, going 0-5 against top-20 KenPom teams this season. That includes double-digit losses to Florida, Vanderbilt, and Arkansas. While the Aggies’ win over Saint Mary’s was impressive, it also may have been influenced as much by the Gaels’ shortcomings. 

Let’s back Houston to cover the spread in an easy win. Kelvin Sampson should have his team prepped to handle and exploit the press defense all night long. Meanwhile, it could be an offensive slog for A&M against the Cougars. 

  • PICK: Houston -9.5 (-135 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
 

Vanderbilt vs. Nebraska Prediction: Saturday, 3/21

This matchup features two teams that have exceeded preseason expectations. Back in January, both Vanderbilt and Nebraska were undefeated and ranked inside the AP Top 10. Each side avoided a first-round upset on Thursday, setting up a showdown with a Sweet 16 spot at stake.

Vanderbilt faced some resistance from McNeese but gradually took control, pulling away in the second half for a double-digit win. Stud guard Tyler Tanner led the charge with 26 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists. The victory over a dangerous 12-seed was an encouraging sign, especially following the Commodores’ recent run to the SEC Tournament title game.

Nebraska, meanwhile, delivered a dominant performance against Troy. The Cornhuskers cruised to a 29-point victory and secured the program’s first NCAA Tournament win. While some viewed Fred Hoiberg’s group as a potential upset candidate, Troy struggled to keep pace throughout. 

The key to this game lies in the clash between Vanderbilt’s high-powered offense and Nebraska’s elite defense. The Commodores rank 8th nationally in offensive efficiency, while the Cornhuskers sit 7th in defensive efficiency (per KenPom). More specifically, Vanderbilt’s effectiveness from beyond the arc could ultimately decide the outcome.

Nebraska’s perimeter defense is something of a double-edged sword. The ‘Huskers hold opponents to just 29.8% shooting from three (8th in Division I), but they also allow one of the highest volumes of three-point attempts in the country. That could play into Vanderbilt’s hands, as the Commodores have multiple capable shooters. Tyler Nickel, AK Okereke, and Tanner all have the ability to heat up from deep.

If Vanderbilt connects consistently from three, its offense can become difficult to contain. The Commodores also excel at protecting the ball and converting at the free-throw line, ranking 14th nationally in offensive turnover rate and 4th in free-throw percentage.

Nebraska’s offense, meanwhile, is also heavily dependent on perimeter scoring. The Cornhuskers rank among the top 20 nationally in both three-point attempts and makes per game, which can lead to inconsistency from one outing to the next. Vanderbilt, however, typically does a solid job limiting opponents from deep.

Defensively, the Commodores do have some clear vulnerabilities. They struggle to secure defensive rebounds and tend to send opponents to the free-throw line at a high rate, ranking 242nd in defensive rebounding percentage and 327th in free-throw attempts allowed. That said, Nebraska is not well-equipped to exploit those weaknesses, ranking near the bottom nationally in both offensive rebounding and free-throw attempts.

This should be a tight game throughout, but Vandy has the slight edge to come out ahead. It’s worth noting that even though the Commodores enter as the worse seed, they currently rank slightly higher at KenPom and in the NET. 

  • PICK: Vanderbilt ML (-125 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
 

Best College Basketball Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 3/21

  • Michigan State -4.5 (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
  • Duke Team Total Over 74.5 Points (-145 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
  • Gonzaga -6.5 (-102 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

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